Bitcoini hind (BTC) rallied to around $7,300 on April 3, and BTC is still holding onto the $6,700 support level, meaning the price could push the dominant cryptocurrency to the $8,000 ala. Kuid väga täpne riskifondihalduri aktsiaturu hoiatus võib lühiajaliselt krüptovaluutaturgu raputada.
Alpha One Capital Partnersi asutajapartner Dan Niles ütles a märkus klientidele that the dire economic consequence of the coronavirus pandemic could lead to a steeper correction in the U.S. stock market.
With Q2 earnings set to be released in the coming weeks, jobless claims üle 10 miljoni, and major European economics in free fall, the appetite for high-risk assets that include single stocks and crypto assets could fade once again.
Fakeout rallies have occurred frequently in 2020
Nagu Cointelegraph varem teatatud, prominent trader PentarhUdi predicted the Bitcoin price to recover from $5,200 to the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $8,500 before it eventually grinds back down to the $3,000 region.
The pattern of a strong rally leading straight to an intense selloff has already been seen multiple times in the past 12 months. This is the result of Bitcoin’s price abruptly surging in a short period of time and shaking out late shorters in the market. This gives whales time to adjust their positions, often leading to a severe correction afterward.
Alates märtsi lõpust on Bitcoini hind oma hinnast välja murdnud korrelatsioon USA aktsiaturuga. Varem jälgis BTC tähelepanelikult liikumist USA aktsiaturul, reageerides Dow Jonesi tööstuskeskmise turueelsele kauplemisele.
As such, even if the price of Bitcoin sees a large upside movement to the $7,700 to $8,500 range in the short term, the price remains vulnerable to a pullback to the $3,000 to $5,000 area.
BTC USDT päevakava. Allikas: TradingView
Bitcoin’s V-shape recovery makes it vulnerable
The March 12 drop to $3,750 could have technically caused the Bitcoin price to flash crash to zero as discussed by a few industry executives. Fortunately for investors, the price impressively rebounded from $3,600 to $6,700 with barely any pullback apart from a brief wick down to $4,400.
The stock market also demonstrated a similar V-shape recovery as Bitcoin, prompting renowned strategists to predict a deeper correction in the upcoming weeks.
Niles ütles aktsiaturu kohta:
“I sort of laugh when I hear people talking about a V-shaped recovery because we are going to have at least 10% unemployment, my guess is closer to 20% before all of this is said and done.”
Likvideeritud longs jääb ohuks
Sama argumenti V-kujulise taastumise tugevuse puudumise kohta aktsiaturul saab rakendada ka Bitcoini puhul. Arvestades, et krüptovaluuta ei ole saavutanud tugevat toetustaset oma taastumise ajal 6,700–7,300 dollarini, ähvardab see 12. märtsiga sarnase languse ohtu, kus lühikese aja jooksul likvideeritakse märkimisväärne hulk pikki lepinguid.
A long accumulation phase, in contrast to a V-shape recovery, allows spot volume to grow and actual retail investors to buy into the market, rather than highly-leveraged futures orders affecting the short-term price trend of BTC.