Bloomberg journalist, David Fickling, said the Tesla Semi would fail in 2017 but in 2022 David Fickling admits that the Tesla Semi will succeed.
David Fickling has covered energy and commodities for Bloomberg News, Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.
Here are the key points from David Fickling:
* The Volvo Semi has 3 tons of batteries for its 540 kWh pack. Tesla’s 900-1000 kWh pack is almost 6 tons.
* Fickling writes that a regular Class 8 semi-trailer with half a metric ton of diesel in its tank can haul a 20-ton load for 1,000 miles between refueling stops.
NOTE: I proved that the Tesla demo drive of 500 miles was moving a 22-ton load.
* Logistics is an extremely low-margin industry. JB Hunt Transport Services, one of the biggest US operators, last year made roughly $1.63 per mile of revenue in its long-haul intermodal business, roughly half of which goes on fuel.
* Musk may end up getting the last laugh.
Fickling was laughing in 2017 but believes Musk Semi wins in 2022. The change is the price of diesel. Diesel prices have doubled.
There is detailed online truck expenditure calculator here.
Using the current prices of Californian diesel and commercial electricity into the trucking expenditure calculator made by logistics-data company ACT Research Co., and even an electric rig that is much more expensive the price to buy than a conventional diesel truck, EV Semi gets 12% cost savings every mile, equivalent to nearly $17,000 a year at typical usage level.
Logistics is a huge and diverse industry with plenty of niches for electrified trucking. Last-mile deliveries from warehouses to stores and homes probably offer the best opportunities.
Long-haul trucking moves plenty of low-density cargoes like potato chips, throw pillows and apparel where battery trucks would do great. Buyers can afford to experiment: the 20 Tesla Semis on order by FedEx is the start of a converting parts of the 86,000 Fedex fleet.
The other advantage for Tesla is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which will be in effect for 10 years from 2023-2032. The IRA gives Tesla Semi a $40,000 discount and IRA gives a 30-50% tax incentive for all Megapacks which will be used for charging. Pepsi is using a $15 million California grant to pay for some of the Tesla Semi and four 750 kW charging.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
