December Market Outlook
It is not going away.
Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell requested that the central bank’s preferred descriptor for the worst price inflation in 40 years (“transitory”) be “retired” from use.
Powell basically admitted that:
a) he was wrong (not always an easy thing to do when you’re the world’s most powerful person)
b) he now agreed with his early critics on this particular topic that inflation will be with us for the foreseeable future
Now, to be clear, heightened inflation (a debatable term) will likely one day “go away”, at least in the United States.
The last period of outsized US inflation started in the 1960s and lasted until the early 1980s, so these episodes can last a decade or more even in the land of the almighty dollar. But they do typically subside.
Powell’s capitulation reminded us of another thing that many of the powers that be have come to recognize is not going away.
Bitcoin.
For many years now we have expressed a view, backed-up by extensive empirical research, that bitcoin/crypto/web 3 are not a passing fad.
And regulators in the jurisdiction that still matters the most — the United States — have been echoing this sentiment since at least as far back as 2018, long before Chairman Gensler and Powell did a few months ago.
Now, there are still some holdouts that can be found atop the greying financial system food chain and in the bowels of academia.
But the smart money, innovators and most powerful regulators all generally recognize that crypto is also non-transitory.
As one of our Blockchain.com teammates recently mentioned, it feels great to work in an industry that is at last widely recognized as a legitimate fixture on the innovation landscape. Not a bad note to end another historic year on.
Summary:
- Market Movements
- For November cryptoasset markets diverged slightly with Bitcoin (BTC) down -7% and Ethereum (ETH) up 8%
- On this month’s monthly webinar we discuss the current cryptoasset price action and 2022 outlook with Blockckchain.com Head of Markets Charlie McGarraugh
2. On-Chain Insights
- On a monthly basis, overall bitcoin on-chain activity continued increasing in the month of November
- Bitcoin’s hash rate (network security) has rebounded to pre-China May crackdown levels
3. What we’re reading, hearing, and watching
- Explore the latest on crypto and beyond from The New York Times, Bloomberg, Bitcoin Magazine, and more
1. Market Movements
For November cryptoasset markets diverged slightly with Bitcoin (BTC) down -7% and Ethereum (ETH) up 8% (Table 1).
Table 1: Price Performance: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, US Equities, USD, Long-dated US Treasuries
2. On-Chain Insights
On a monthly basis, overall bitcoin on-chain activity continued increasing in the month of November (Table 2).
Table 2: November vs October bitcoin on-chain network activity
While the estimated hash rate has gained an impressive 8% this month, the average daily active addresses have remained fairly stagnant with a -0.04% drop. Notably, the average daily fees per transaction have dropped from $3.21 per transaction in October to $2.96 per transaction in November.
3. What we’re reading, hearing, and watching
Crypto
- All-in: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more
- Beyond The Valley: How Ethereum is Different from Bitcoin
- Bitcoin Magazine: Discussing The Future Of Decentralized Identity
- Bitcoin Magazine: Forget Bears: Bitcoin Takes On The Duck Curve
- Bitcoin Magazine: How Large-Scale Bitcoin Mining Is Driving Clean Energy Innovation
- Bitcoin Magazine: The Crucial Role Of Wild Horses In Bitcoin Mining
- Bloomberg: Be Careful With Volcano Bonds
- Future: DAOs, A Canon
- Harvard Business Review: How NFTs Create Value
- Marginal Revolution: Bitcoin and Electricity
- Nikkei Asia: Bitcoin Mining is an Easy Industry to Decarbonize
- Pew Research Centre: 16% of Americans say they have ever invested in, traded or used cryptocurrency
- Proptos: Tether Papers, This is exactly who acquired 70% of all USDT ever issued
- Protocol: NFT games are fun. Filing taxes afterward is a nightmare
- Quartz: Why People are Skeptical of Crypto, and Why They Change Their Minds
- The Atlantic: Hey, Facebook, I Made a Metaverse 27 Years Ago
- The Tim Ferriss Show: #542: Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant — The Wonders of Web3, How to Pick the Right Hill to Climb, Finding the Right Amount of Crypto Regulation, Friends with Benefits, and the Untapped Potential of NFTs
Beyond Crypto
- Five Thirty Eight: Most Americans Are Afraid of Inflation
- Food for Thought: GoodFellows, Conversations from the Hoover Institution
- Krebson Security: The Internet is Held Together With Spit & Baling Wire
- Piie: US inflation is running high. What should we worry about now?
- Reuters: The Amazon Lobbyists Who Kill U.S. Consumer Privacy Protections
- Slashdot: Bill Gates’ TerraPower Will Set Up a $4 Billion Nuclear Plant In Wyoming
- The Intercept: The U.S. Treasury is Buying Private App Data to Target and Investigate People
- The Intercept: We’ve All Pretended About Taiwan for 72 Years. It May Not Work Any Longer
- The Washington Post: Beneath the mystery of Tom Brady’s greatness is a modest secret: Self-discipline
- Time Well Spent: Words With Web 3’s King: An Interview With Chris Dixon
Important note
The research provided herein is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Blockchain.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision.
End of the Transitory was originally published in @blockchain on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
Source: https://medium.com/blockchain/end-of-the-transitory-314075266ba9?source=rss—-8ac49aa8fe03—4
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