Zapiranje ZDA: pred nami so nemirne razmere, močan zaključek januarja za delnice, dolar oslabi

US stocks finished the month on a nice note, but rough waters still could be ahead over global tightening pressures.  Some of the smart money on Wall Street is still looking to fade every rally as valuations won’t live up to their expectations.   

It seems the Fed will struggle to reach a clear consensus over how aggressive the March liftoff will be, so aggressive ‘buying the dip’ won’t be happening anytime soon.  Economic conditions are still looking good this year but repositioning over valuations and growth concerns will likely keep volatility elevated over the short-term. 

FX

Tightening races should provide interesting currency moves going forward.  Dollar dominance has been mostly priced in as the Fed now seems poised to deliver 5-7 rate hikes this year.  The dollar will likely keep its crown against many emerging markets but could start to see some underperformance against advanced economies that grow more aggressive in tightening.  On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 0.50% and they may follow through on earlier commitments to run down its 895-billion-pound balance sheet. The British pound could rally if the BOE signals they no longer think inflation will improve to its 2% target in 2024.    

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Ed Moya

Višji tržni analitik, Amerika at OANDA

Ed Moya je z več kot 20-letnimi izkušnjami na področju trgovanja višji tržni analitik pri OANDA, ki izdeluje najnovejšo analizo med trgi, pokriva geopolitične dogodke, politike centralne banke in se odziva trga na novice podjetij. Njegovo posebno znanje se nanaša na široko paleto razredov premoženja, vključno z deviznimi sredstvi, blagom, fiksnim dohodkom, delnicami in kriptovalutami. Ed je v svoji karieri sodeloval z nekaterimi vodilnimi posredniki na forexu, raziskovalnimi skupinami in oddelki za novice na Wall Streetu, vključno z Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions in Trading Advantage. Nazadnje je sodeloval s trgovino TradeTheNews.com, kjer je zagotovil tržno analizo ekonomskih podatkov in poslovnih novic. Ed s sedežem v New Yorku je redni gost več večjih finančnih televizijskih omrežij, vključno s CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business in Sky TV. Njegovim stališčem zaupajo najbolj znane svetovne medijske hiše, med njimi Reuters, Bloomberg in Associated Press, redno pa ga citirajo v vodilnih publikacijah, kot so MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times in The Wall Street Journal. Ed je diplomiral iz ekonomije na univerzi Rutgers.

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20220131/us-close-rough-waters-ahead-strong-january-finish-stocks-dollar-weakens/