A Bitcoin (BTC) visszapattan, de nem igényel vissza 36,000 XNUMX dollárt

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving upwards since bouncing on June 22. So far, it has managed to reach a local high of $36,623 on June 29.

However, BTC has failed to reclaim several important resistance levels. In addition, technical indicators do not indicate a bullish reversal is in the cards.

Bitcoin rebound

A BTC jelentősen visszapattant a június 21-28-i héten. A mélypont elérte a 28,805 32,600 dollárt, de hosszú alsó kanócot hozott létre (zöld). Továbbra is elérte a XNUMX XNUMX dolláros vízszintes támogatási terület feletti zárást. Ez a terület döntő fontosságú, mert a BTC az év eleje óta nem ért el lejjebb, bár néhány kanóc áttörte.

A heti zárás a kalapács gyertya, amit gyakran bullish jelnek tekintenek.

A szorosan felüli horizontális támasz ellenére a technikai mutatók továbbra is gyengék. Az MACD csökkenő és negatív, az RSI 50 alá esett, a sztochasztikus oszcillátor pedig mackó keresztet húzott (piros ikonok).

Ezért a visszapattanás nem elegendő a visszafordulás megerősítéséhez.

BTC still trading in a range

The daily chart provides a somewhat mixed outlook. BTC seems to be trading in a range between $31,400 and $40,550. It has been doing so since the initial drop on May 19. It bounced at the support area on June 22 and has been moving upwards since.

On one hand, the upward movement was preceded by very significant bullish divergence in the MACD signal line, the RSI, and the Stochastic oscillator.

However, none of the three currently has a bullish reading. The MACD signal line is still negative, the RSI is below 50, and the Stochastic oscillator has made a bearish cross.

While BTC is roughly halfway to the resistance area of $40,557, it has decreased sharply today and is in the process of creating a medve elárasztó gyertyatartó. Doing so would likely confirm that the trend is bearish.

Hullámszám

The long-term wave count is not yet entirely clear.

While bitcoin has clearly been on a downward trend since April 14, it’s not yet certain if the downward movement ended on June 22 (green icon), or if BTC is still in the fifth and final wave of a bearish impulse (black count).

While the former would suggest that the bottom is in, the latter would indicate that the price could continue decreasing towards $23,600 and potentially $19,800.

A closer look at the movement supports the bearish scenario.

The ongoing upward movement looks like an A-B-C corrective structure (red). There are two main reasons for this:

• The overlap between the upward movement and the rejection (red line).
• The move ended at a confluence of Fib resistance levels; the 0.618 Fib retracement level (black) and the 1:1 A:C target (red).

Therefore, it’s more likely that BTC has yet to reach its low and that another downward movement will follow.