Battery Expert Agrees With My Tesla Semi, Megapack Analysis

I had a talk on a Tesla Twitter Space with a few hundred people including battery expert Jordan of the Limiting Factor. Jordan agreed my conclusion that the Tesla Semi is a stealth way to sell many megapacks. It could be even a three Semi trucks to one Megapack ratio. Jordan spoke with people who have a 40,000 foot factory with high electricity usage. The factory currently gets 200-300 kilowatts of power. Using all 0.3 megawatts would require over 13 hours to fill one 3.9 megawatt hour megapack. It would take nearly all of the power to fill two megapacks over the course of a day, then each pack could charge about six 500 mile semi trucks with 70% charge.

These shows that owners of Semi trucks need massive amounts of grid power, megapacks and a lot of solar power onsite. The Semi truck to megapack ratio is about 4 to 6 Semi trucks to one Megapack.

There is a nearly ten times greater financial incentive for companies using diesel Semi trucks to get the Tesla Semi truck versus normal people to get a Model 3 or Model Y. A heavy user of diesel Semi truck owner pays $80000 per year or so for diesel fuel and $2000-5000 for brake pads while electrical brings costs down to $17000 per year.

$60000+ saved per year versus $4000 per year electricity versus gas saving for Model Y. Even after scaling for the price difference of say $240000 less $40000 for tax incentive to get $200,000 vs $60000 for a Model Y. The scaled to same cost Semi is $18000+ savings versus $4000 for a Model Y.

This large cost-saving economic signal means Tesla truck domination is a matter of time and production scaling. Semi truck at scale guarantees and requires terawatts per year megapack. It jump starts the entire electrification of the global grid. NOTE: for those who read and listen to this and hear – “well you are just fanboying over Elon and Tesla”. I have just the financial and technological analysis that says the entire 300 TWH conversion of transportation and energy will happen and in perhaps as little as 20 years. This is bigger than one nuclear fusion reactor. Global Nuclear fission generates 2600 TWh per year, so nuclear power is a very good thing that replaces the need for 2 billion tons per year of coal power. Replacing all cars and trucks globally with electrification removes the demand for about 30 million barrels per day. 17 million barrels per day is all trucks.

A recording from the Value Analyst (aka Yaman Tasdivar of Tesla Triples in 2022) Twitter Space for Dec 13, 2022. Yaman, Alistair and battery expert Jordan Giesige the Limiting Factor and I discuss the secrets and impact of the Tesla Semi, megapack and more.

I make my case that the details of the Tesla Semi and megacharging that were revealed transform the economics of trucking. There are a couple of 10X advantages which means it is only a matter of time for Tesla to scale and take over trucking and energy.

Vastly superior economics and technology at the level that was shown means inevitable changes.

It is like changing from horse and carriages to cars but this time the new thing looks on the surface to be the same. This tricks you into missing the revolution.

The Tesla Semi technology solves torque and towing heavy loads. Instead of dropping to one-third of the range, the Tesla Semi and cybertruck will keep over half of the empty range. Diesel trucks drop from 20 mpg down to 9 mpg. So Tesla will lose less efficiency under load than diesel trucks.