Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC bulls’ bid for $40,000 delayed at $39,000 key technical level

Bitcoin has gradually but consistently lifted from $31,000 to levels near $40,000. However, the flagship cryptocurrency has not entirely broken above the resistance at $40,000, especially with immense resistance presented by the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $38,800 following a minor rejection from the immediate hurdle, the 200 SMA. The bid for $40,000 continues to challenge the bulls even as bears increase their entries. On the downside, the immediate support at $38,000 is key to resuming the journey toward the short-term goal.

Bitcoin’s uptrend seems intact

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) emphasizes that bulls have the upper hand based on the four-hour timeframe. This indicator follows the trend of an asset while measuring its momentum. Although the MACD does not identify overbought and oversold conditions of the market, it helps pinpoint the positions to buy the dip or sell the top.

Meanwhile, the MACD on Bitcoin‘s chart shows that buyers have more influence. For instance, since the drop to $31,000, the indicator has made it to the positive region. Additionally, the MACD line (blue) sustains the divergence above the signal line; thus, the least resistance path is upward.

BTC/USD four-hour chart

As mentioned, support at $38,000 remains key to sustaining the uptrend. However, the resistance at the 200 SMA must come down to allow Bitcoin to move closer to $40,000. A break above $40,000 would be a significant milestone in light of the recent frequent retracements and may trigger immense buy orders, bolstering the price higher.

However, if the support at $38,000 gives in, we can expect BTC to drop to $36,000, a buyer congestion highlighted by the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA.

Bitcoin intraday levels

Spot rate: $38,830

Trend: Short-term bearish biased

Volatility: Low

Resistance: The 200 SMA and $40,000

Support: $38,000 and $36,000

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John is a talented writer with over two years of experience actively contributing to the cryptocurrency industry by providing credible, interesting and easy to read the content. His main focus is on cryptocurrency price analysis and industry news coverage. Lets follow him on Twitter at @jjisige