Bitcoin stalls at $30k, prompting McGlone to warn ‘there may be a bigger issue’

The cryptocurrency market continued to consolidate on Thursday as a quiet day on the news front provided traders with little motivation to actively trade the market. The countdown for the SEC’s ruling on the recent spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications has officially begun, but the regulator has up to 240 days to make its final decision.

Stocks traded mixed as the poor earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix overshadowed positive reports from other companies earlier in the week and showed that the economy still faces significant challenges. The S&P and Nasdaq finished the day in the red, down 0.68% and 2.05%, respectively, while the Dow closed 0.47% higher.

Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin bulls attempted to make a push higher in the early hours on Thursday, only to be rebuffed by bears near $30,500, who then smashed its price through support at $30,000 to hit a daily low of $29,665. BTC has since climbed back above $29,700.

Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said August Bitcoin futures prices were trading slightly higher in the early U.S. trading hours, but otherwise, there is “Not much new late this week.”

Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Kitco

“Prices hit a four-week low on Tuesday, but trading has turned sideways and choppy again,” Wyckoff said. “The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to move prices above the recent choppy and sideways trading range to gain fresh power.”

Economic realities overshadow recent momentum

Some in the community have voiced concerns about the loss of momentum for Bitcoin despite the recent ETF filings, which prompted Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior macro strategist Mike McGlone to warn “There may be a bigger issue.”

“Stalling at about $30,000 amid hype about potential for an ETF launch and the seemingly unstoppable stock market, a Bitcoin pause may signal bigger economic issues,” McGlone tweeted on Thursday.

The analysis that accompanied McGlone’s tweet noted that, following the 100% increase in BTC price from the 2022 low, “another 2x advance might require a similar foundation – a significant decline.”

“The risk-asset rally in 2023 hasn’t been endorsed recently by the asset some view as the fastest course in the race,” McGlone said. “After climbing about 5% since the end of 1Q, vs. closer to 20% for the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, trailing Bitcoin may catch up or portend headwinds from a potential deflationary economic storm. Our bias is the latter.”

He added that the spike in BTC price following the ETF applications was possibly the result of short-covering and said the U.S. economy still faces significant headwinds.

“BlackRock jumping into the Bitcoin ETF-application game about a month ago may have sparked a short-covering rally akin to the advent of futures in 2017 and futures-based ETFs in 2021. An ETF launch may not come in 2023, and Bloomberg Economics expects the US to tilt toward a recession in 2H.”

Zooming out to look at the financial markets as a whole, McGlone said, “The fact that the rising stock market appears to be boosting the fed funds rate could represent a lose-lose for the economy and inflation, reflected by weakening commodities, cryptos and US Treasury bond yields.”

Cryptocurrency market analyst Rekt Capital posted the following chart, noting “BTC ended yesterday’s candle as a weak green candle,” and warned, “price is now showing signs of flipping green into new resistance.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

“As long as green continues to act as resistance, ~$29300 could be next over time,” Rekt Capital said.