So I woke up in the middle of the night and checked my crypto portfolio. It did NOT look good. I lost about 30% of my investment in what seemed like a poof of black magic.
I thought about staying up and fretting, but I’m still recovering from brain surgery and I need my sleep. I figure my health is more important than money and went back to bed.
This morning, my losses are not quite as sharp. Bitcoin has bounced slightly and so has Ethereum.
My one hold-out from the general malaise of yesterday, Polygon, has finally succumbed to the general FUD and has also dropped. Et tu, Matic?
So, what are we to make of all of this?
Crypto is volatile — if you can’t hack it don’t be in this space
If you are the type of person who wants to dollar cost average into the market every month and steadily gain a few percentage points over time — crypto is not for you.
Before you got into crypto, hopefully you did your research. General rule of both investing and contracts — read the fine print. Ask questions and get answers before you lay your money down.
If you did your research — you know what the crypto bull run looked like back in 2013 and 2017. If you haven’t already done so — go check out those charts. If you look at the candle wicks, you’ll see lots of red corrections during those bull runs. Sometimes as much as 40%. This is during a BULL MARKET.
If you got into Crypto recently — well, you’ll need to be even more careful
The ideal time to have gotten into crypto was back before the bull officially started. Don’t fret if you didn’t get in until after the bull was underway, however. I didn’t, either.
I didn’t get into crypto until December. I started off small, bought a little Bitcoin, some Ethereum for less than $1000. So this latest correction isn’t wrecking me. For those of you who didn’t get in until March or April though… well, it’s a bit rougher, isn’t it?
Hopefully you didn’t invest your rent money
Rule of thumb I repeat over and over — don’t invest more into volatile markets than you can afford to lose.
That means — you don’t risk your rent money or what you need for your baby’s formula.
What strategy should you follow now that crypto is crashing?
There are two strategies I suggest, depending on whether we’re in a bull or bear market.
If you think we’re having a harsh correction in the middle of a bull market — buy the dips. Hopefully you took profits earlier in the bull and so you have some cash on hand to keep doing this on the way down. Of course, depending on the size of the correction, you may run out of cash before the market hits bottom.
If you think we’re about to enter a bear market — start moving money from alts to Bitcoin. Eat some small losses if necessary to protect the bulk of your money. Don’t throw good money after bad.
So, is the bull market over?
I don’t think so. I think we have a lot of FUD going on (FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doubt). This is not a good place to be when you need to keeping your head clear and panic free so you can make good decisions.
People under the influence of FUD do stupid things like buy the top and sell the bottom. Don’t do that.
If you got into the bull market late and bought near the top — remember, you don’t actually lose your money UNTIL you sell. So, don’t sell.
But, anyway, what is influencing the market now is not the end of the bull, at least IMHO. I could be wrong, of course. It’s not like that doesn’t happen. However, looking at past cycles — hard corrections have occurred before during bull markets.
Based on the last two Bitcoin cycles — we still have a few months to go before the bull market is over.
What if history doesn’t repeat itself?
I’m making predictions based on what’s happened in the past. But there is no guarantee this time won’t be different.
Maybe this time, thanks to Elon Musk and China and the pandemic and a whole host of other black swan events, everything has changed and the bull market was killed young.
Maybe it’s all the whales coming in and the newbies and they’ve changed the dynamics. Who knows?
If things are different this time — the best way to protect yourself is still the same as above. Don’t panic. Stay cool and wait.
Crypto is here to stay, just like computers were back in the day
Volatility is the hall mark of a new technology. However, just as the personal computer eventually proved itself, I think crypto has shown it has staying power.
If you did your research when you bought crypto, you’ll have invested in coins that have serious use value. Coins like Ethereum, Chainlink, Solana, and Polygon. Even if we’re about to enter a bear market, coins with real use case value will survive and you’ll be able to recoup your losses and make a profit given enough time.
When it comes to making money, time is your friend
If you’re looking at losses right now, remember that time is your friend. If you invested wisely in good coins with a real application and good value, then simply being patient will ensure you don’t lose money.
During a bull run profits can be made quickly. During a bear, patience may be needed.
Conclusion
Hopefully you will be feeling a bit more calm. As I said, I think we are still in the middle of a bull market and real profits will be made by the end of the year.
If I am wrong, though, and the bear market has gotten an early start — you can still make money. You just need to be play the long game and be patient.
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