
Life expectancy is proportional to age- that’s what The Lindy Effect explains.
The Lindy effect proposes that the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, it is also likely to have a longer remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence, or competition and greater odds of continued existence into the future.- wikipedia.org
One of the best examples is gold. Gold has been around us for more than 5,000 years, and because it has survived as a hard asset for so long, it remains a solid safe haven for the humanity.
Bitcoin has been around only for 12 years. And because of that, it’s a younger survivor. But every year that passes, this digital asset keeps getting more robust and resistant to competition and has more odds of continuing its existence into the future.
Technological revolutions come in cycles. And for these technologies to thrive, they need infrastructures.
Yet, at the beginning of a disruptive era, there is too much innovation for few infrastructures. Meaning, for example, with the car revolution in the 1900s, suddenly there were more than 100 car companies producing vehicles, but there were no roads for them to drive, neither gas stations for them to fill their tanks.
There were no infrastructures to support that new technology.
So, in 1908 there were 253 automobile manufacturers, but it dropped to 44 in 1929.
With the Internet, the same happened. In the 90s, massive innovative companies arrived, with promises of a gigantic revolution, but the system’s speed was slow, the e-commerce was nonexistent, and because of that, the tech bubble burst.
Look what happened to companies like Amazon, Microsoft, or Apple after passing The Lindy Effect and getting matured?
All technologies follow what’s known as the S-curve of diffusion.
The S–curve can also be used to depict the diffusion of innovations in a culture over time. First described by Everett Rogers in the early 1960s, diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated and taken up over time.- open.edu
The Bitcoin network is doing its trajectory into a mature technology.
Historically, the Bitcoin has been growing at a 198.72% compounded annual growth rate for the last ten years. If you compare to gold (1.97%), the S&P500 (11.22%), Nasdaq (16.94%), Long Dated US Treasury (4.58%), Amazon (33.5%), or even Tesla (63.8%), obviously nothing is compared with the Bitcoin.
About the S-curve, I believe we’re still between the Incubation phase and the Rapid Growth phase.
Some of the S&P500 companies and funds have already started to buy Bitcoin for their balance sheets. Microstrategy, Tesla, Square, or Ark Invest are the most popular ones. But companies like Palantir are considering holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet too. So, the longer the Bitcoin network proves its resilience, the bigger the adoption.
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