Gas Vs Electric Accident and Fire Safety

There have been about 250 million cars in the US in most years from 2010 to 2022. The level has slowly increased to 280 million.

The insurance site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.

Let us sanity-check the numbers. Average cars last for about 12 years. There are about 6 million car accidents in an average year in the USA. There are about 180,000-220,000 car accidents that involve a fire each year. 3% of the car accidents have a fire. This would suggest that 2.4-3.0 million car fire accidents for the 12-year-life of 250 million car cohort (2008-2020). This would be 0.9-1.2% of gasoline or diesel cars will have a fire accident over the life of the vehicle. There would be 72 million car accidents of any kind over the 12-year-life of 250 million car cohort. Around 29% of the cars get into some kind of car accident. The actual total would be less at around 20-25% as some cars would be in multiple accidents.

Only about 5 percent of car fires result from a collision. But those account for 6 in 10 of all fatal vehicle fires. Less than 2 percent start in the fuel tank or lines. Most of these fires begin with problems in the engine, drivetrain or wheel areas. They may also be caused by a faulty design or defective parts. There are more than 19 vehicle fires every hour in the United States. They account for 1 in every 8 calls that fire departments respond to.

More than a third are the result of some unintentional action, either careless behavior or accidents. And nearly a quarter are caused by equipment failure or a heat source in the car or truck.

However, there are some claims that most vehicle fires are caused by a crash. What causes a car to catch fire in an accident? Most fires originate within the vehicle, such as a broken fuel line coming into contact with an overheated engine.

Heat from powered equipment, the engine or drivetrain, and sparks from friction or electrical arcs account for 2 in 3 vehicle fires. Smoking or some other type of open flame accounts for 7 percent of fires.

There are about 6 million hybrid vehicles on the road now in the US. However, the average number for 2008-2020 would be about 3 million hybrid vehicles. This is a little over 1% of the total vehicles. The usage pattern of the hybrid cars should be the same as the gas cars. They are driven just as much and at similar speed on highways. The Auto Insurance EZ statistics suggest hybrid cars are twice as likely to have an accident become an accident with fire.

There are about 2 million battery electric cars in the USA now. However, the vast majority were sold in the last three years. The early cars in the 2008-2013 timeframe were very few and most of them had terrible range. The usage pattern would be different. They would primarily be commuter cars (a short drive to some stores or a short drive to and from work.) From 2017 to 2022, 70% of the cars would be Tesla cars. They would have longer range and more usage. Tesla’s have better safety statistics. They do not get into as many accidents and if they do get in an accident the driver and passengers are safer. Electric cars are virtually impossible to roll. The heavy batteries are on the bottom of the vehicle.

We would need to match the electric cars statistics to the 12-year average life and miles driven for the gas cars. We need to boost the Auto Insurance EZ compiled statistics for electric car accident fires by at least 4 to 6 times to match the 12-year life of the gas cars. There may need to be a double or triple to align the usage patterns. Tesla company statistics report that the cars get into fewer accidents. Tesla cars get into accidents once in every 4 million miles vs once in every 500,000 miles. The electric cars statistic of being 60X less likely to have a vehicle fire could be explained by not having the full time for accidents to occur (2-3 years and not 12 years, 4-6X) and the usage pattern difference and some superior safety accident avoidance systems in Teslas (8X). However, the statistic that most of the car fires are not the result of car collisions complicates the analysis.

Electric cars seem to be safer but there need to be more cars in a study and a matching 12 year period of comparison. If the usage pattern of electric cars changes then this is important to the changing safety profile. Electric trucks, Semi and SUVS are just now appearing. Electric trucks, taxi and buses have higher usage rates and different usage patterns.