Investment Analysis under Energy Crisis and Regulatory Clamp

Futures Market

Crude Oil

The world now is struck by an energy crisis, with natural gas-related futures in Europe setting a record high amid gas storage hitting a new low in September and a drop of 16% comparing with the average number of last 5 years.While in the United State, natural gas rockets to a new high in the past 10 years as well. The storage of crude oil is winding down with the gradually recovering demand.As a result, WTI crude oil price exceeded 75 U.S dollars per barrel on 27th after consecutive rise in the past 5 weeks.

Energy products in general has been rising in varying degree. Former weak crude oil shows a stronger trends and breaks above previous high after being exposed to consecutive six-day moving average.Now a slight callback after a new high confirms that the support is effective. Due to the escalating energy crisis, I keep bullish toward crude oil outlook.It is more proper to buy limit under the support that the price does not breaks above the front high.

Thermal Coal

China is in the grip of a power supply squeeze as regulators calling for electricity usage limits, pushing coal prices to record highs.

Current thermal coal still sizzles hot. As china has no pricing power on energy commodities and other countries still struggle in energy panic, energy supply in short term remains a problem,signalling bulls in the following thermal coal market.In terms of operation during short time, it is more appropriate to buy limit when the callback price is still above support line.

IM

Continuous coal reduction and lower-than-expected economic data triggered weak prices of some raw materials. Meanwhile, Chinese government rolled out several steel production curbing measures.In addition, the steel demand is winding.As current market is sensitive to production limit and rising IM in the last two days has not exceeded the rang instead holds the former trend, it may rebound slightly in the short term.Investors with no positions can sell limit while individuals who set short position in advance can hold on until limit stop point.

Crypto Market

China has embarked on a sweeping crackdown on the country’s cryptocurrency industry,declaring more activities related to crypto “illegal”. As a result, Huobi, one of the world’s biggest crypto exchanges, announced it would remove Chinese users by the end of the year, while Binance, another large platform, was no longer accepting user sign-ups with Chinese phone numbers.The bearish news later caused USDT to plunge below 6 US dollars.

BTC

BTC slumped on Sept.26th and continued to weaken after rebounding to 44,356. Now it has rallied to the range near previous rising spectrum and its 4-hour candlestick chart is showing a triangular correction on the way down. It is more likely to drop after the correction. Investors can set long positions in short term, stop limit at 43,000 and stop loss when the price jumped below the support line. Prudent investors can wait to sell short after it rebounds or breaks below.

ETH

Like BTC, ETH continues to weaken in short period after rallying. But its 4-hour candlestick chart presents a trend within rang. Investors can try to make small position at current middle with slightly lower price while cover the position after the price corrects back the lower support. Meanwhile, it is proper to stop limit at 3100 and stop loss when ETH slumps below support line.

FIL

FIL will reduce its circulation on October 15th. It showed a large dealing quantity when rebounding after drop on Sept. 26, meaning major whales buying at the bottom at that moment. Based on two factors above, FIL has larger possibility for further bulls. The impact from BTC is relatively small on itself and FIL has stronger rising momentum than BTC. High throw bargain — hunting is more proper for short-term operation and investors can stop loss when FIL breaks the upper and lower edge. As for long-term operation, investors may try to buy limit with loss stop point extending to 50 .

Disclaimer: The above is merely a personal talk which shall not be deemed as investment reference.Investment is accompanied by risks and the author will not be responsible for any investment options or relevant outcomes.

Author Profile:
Captain wowo,guest commentator of Fish.Pro,has 4-year rich experience in investment practice of both stock and crypto market.Focusing on spot transaction,Captain wowo is proficient at analyzing macro policies and market interpretation and has his own stable trade modes with profound understanding of long-term trades and short-term taste.

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Source: https://fishpro.medium.com/investment-analysis-under-energy-crisis-and-regulatory-clamp-5eef92d5e948?source=rss——cryptocurrency-5