Oil lower, gold stumbles

Oil

Oil prices are lower as energy traders await a wrath of central bank decisions that will trigger mid-cycle slowdowns that will cripple the short-term crude demand outlook. Commodities are broadly weaker as this week is all about the aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation.

OPEC+ may have a strong case to lower output after this week’s central bank decisions. ​ A global economic slowdown is here and unless the oil market sees some surprise disruptions or broader market rally, crude prices could remain heavy. 

Gold could get crushed by Fed

Gold’s ‘September Swoon’ could get uglier if the inflation-fighting Fed decides not to blink at the risk of sending the economy into a recession. Fed Chair Powell’s messaging will likely determine if gold gets crushed here. Gold will be in trouble if Powell is able to convince markets that not only will they remain aggressive with tightening, but that they will hold rates even as the economic downturn worsens. ​ ​

Gold volatility will remain elevated post-FOMC as prices will likely have a strong case for either a move towards $1600 or above the $1700 level.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA

With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.