Băncile centrale în retragere

An uninspiring start to trading on Tuesday, with Europe and the US hovering around flat on the day as focus turns to central bank meetings in the coming days.

The RBA got us underway today and to put it mildly, the performance was underwhelming. At a time when central bank communication is so important, policymakers have failed miserably this past week when put under pressure by the markets.

To simply abandon a policy tool, without warning, days before a meeting is unforgivable. It undermines their credibility after a period in which unconventional tools and trustworthy central bank communication has been the cornerstone of their monetary policy response, to borrow a phrase from another central bank that abandoned its flagship policy with far more severe consequences.

Other central banks have been on the PR offensive when it comes to preparing markets for upcoming policy changes. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to announce tapering on Wednesday as it pares back its pandemic response and prepares for rate hikes next year.

Given the path of travel for central banks around the world, I expect it will gradually accept that some hikes will be needed once tapering draws to a close, perhaps even immediately after. But that will become much more apparent in December when new forecasts are released.

The Bank of England won’t wait that long and may even start raising rates on Thursday. The market appears split on whether they will move this week, with either no change or a 15 basis point hike the likely outcome. While I’m probably in the latter camp, I wouldn’t be surprised if they even opt for 25 to give the tightening process a kick start.

There is the argument that they should wait until December to see what impact the end of the furlough scheme and benefits top-up, higher energy prices, Covid etc will have on the economy. This makes sense, except for the fact that the MPC wanting to raise rates is an inflation play, not a reflection of our booming economy. Whether they act this week or next month makes little difference.

Bitcoin heading for new highs?

Bitcoin is continuing to recover from its post-ETF pullback today, trading a couple of percent higher on the day and testing resistance around $63,500. How it trades around here could tell us whether we’re seeing a corrective rally as part of a deeper pullback in the bitcoin price, or another run for record highs. Whichever it is, I don’t think it will be long before we’re seeing the latter as there’s so much hype in the space right now.

Pentru a vedea toate evenimentele economice de astăzi, consultați calendarul nostru economic: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Cu sediul la Londra, Craig Erlam s-a alăturat OANDA în 2015 ca analist de piață. Cu mulți ani de experiență ca analist și comerciant al pieței financiare, el se concentrează atât pe analize fundamentale, cât și pe analize tehnice, producând în același timp comentarii macroeconomice. Opiniile sale au fost publicate în Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph și International Business Times și apare, de asemenea, ca un comentator obișnuit la BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business și SKY News. Craig deține un membru deplin la Societatea analiștilor tehnici și este recunoscut ca tehnician financiar certificat de Federația internațională a analiștilor tehnici.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Craig Erlam (vezi toate)

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20211102/central-banks-retreat/