Mărfuri și cripto-uri: petrolul prelungește declinul la data negocierilor cu Iranul, aurul a redus pierderile după Fed, Bitcoin a scăzut

Ulei

Crude prices were little impacted by the dovish Fed taper announcement but did extend declines after reports that a date has been set to restart Iran nuclear deal talks.  Tasnim News Agency (Iran press) reported talks will start on November 29^th

Earlier, it was all selling pressure for oil prices after a mostly bearish EIA report showed production picked up, stockpiles grew larger-than-expected, and as the crude demand outlook over the short-term remains unclear.  US production increased by 200,000 bpd, returning to pre-Hurricane Ida levels. 

This week is all about OPEC+, so the weakness hitting Brent crude should run out of steam.  Brent crude has major support at the $78.70 level, as expectations are high OPEC+ will ignore calls to pump more oil. 

Aur

Gold prices pared earlier losses after the Fed signaled it is reading to start pulling back pandemic aid, while signaling they expect pricing pressures to ease in the second or third quarter.  It was a dovish taper and a clear signal that we will have to wait until the summer to hear them admit they are wrong about inflation.  Wall Street got a bit aggressive with rate hike expectations and while yields should still rise, it might be at a slower pace which is good news for gold. 

Gold prices are facing a plethora of resistance around the $1790, but that might not hold as investors will have to wait and see if the Fed is making a policy error.  Treasury yields will climb higher at a slower pace and the risks to the outlook now include a Fed policy mistake, which could send the economy into recession. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin dipped following the release of the FOMC statement, which showed the largest economy in the world just announced the last call for their ultra-accommodative stance.  The Fed is tightening, but the ‘printing of money’ will go on a while longer for the US and several nations.  The formal taper announcement was well telegraphed but the dip in Bitcoin did unnerve some investors. 

The Fed’s tripling down on their inflation will be ‘transitory’ bet and that might lead to a policy mistake, which should trigger massive inflows for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin remains in a consolidation pattern, but the Fed’s start of reducing its asset purchases should not derail the longer-term bullish case for Bitcoin.  

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Ed Moya

Analist senior de piață, America at OANDA

Cu o experiență de tranzacționare de peste 20 de ani, Ed Moya este analist de piață senior în cadrul OANDA, producând analize inter-piețe actualizate, acoperirea evenimentelor geopolitice, politicile băncilor centrale și reacția pieței la știrile corporative. Experiența sa specială se întinde pe o gamă largă de clase de active, inclusiv valutele, mărfurile, veniturile fixe, acțiunile și criptomonedele. De-a lungul carierei sale, Ed a lucrat cu unele dintre cele mai importante companii de brokeraj valutar, echipe de cercetare și departamente de știri de pe Wall Street, inclusiv Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions și Trading Advantage. Cel mai recent a lucrat cu TradeTheNews.com, unde a furnizat analize de piață cu privire la date economice și știri corporative. Cu sediul în New York, Ed este oaspete obișnuit la mai multe rețele majore de televiziune financiară, inclusiv CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business și Sky TV. Opiniile sale sunt de încredere de cele mai renumite știri globale din lume, inclusiv Reuters, Bloomberg și Associated Press, și este citat în mod regulat în publicații de top precum MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times și The Wall Street Journal. Ed deține o licență în economie la Universitatea Rutgers.

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20211103/commodities-cryptos-oil-extends-decline-iran-talks-date-gold-pared-losses-post-fed-bitcoin-flashed-lower/