Nervii înaintea inflației din SUA

We’re seeing plenty of apprehension ahead of the US inflation report on Wednesday, with Asia in the red and Europe following suit.

It’s impossible to get away from the fact that the inflation report has held the markets back this week. There’s clearly a desperate desire to be more optimistic about the outlook; that’s evident from the scale of the recovery already seen in equity markets despite there being seemingly little to celebrate.

But the jobs report on Friday following on from the Fed commentary in the days running up to it has left investors fearing they’ve got carried away too soon and that data-dependency and aggressive tightening can go hand in hand.

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s inflation number could set the tone for the markets for the rest of the month. A lower than expected number could be a major tailwind for the markets while anything around or above the June reading could trigger a big risk reversal in the markets as the debate shifts to 75 or 100 basis points, with 50 left in the rearview mirror.

Encouraging inflation data from China

China is one of the few countries without an inflation problem as was evident in today’s CPI and PPI numbers. The headline CPI fell a little short of expectations, with higher pork and vegetable prices largely behind the increase to 2.7%. Core inflation remains subdued as domestic demand remains soft following lockdowns this year that are weighing on activity and putting the growth target further out of reach. Lower fuel and commodity prices contributed to the sharper decline in the PPI number, keeping the pressure off the PBOC to tighten monetary policy and even leaving room for further easing.

Momentum fades on approach to $25,000

Even bitcoin is looking a little nervy ahead of the inflation report. As odd as that sounds, bitcoin has shown itself to be very resilient of late, recovering quicker and seemingly not being as phased by setbacks. It will be interesting to see how it responds to any setback today or how well it capitalises on a favourable report. We have seen fading momentum in the run-up to $25,000 but a softer inflation number could be just the catalyst bitcoin needs to turn that around.

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Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Cu sediul la Londra, Craig Erlam s-a alăturat OANDA în 2015 ca analist de piață. Cu mulți ani de experiență ca analist de piață financiară și comerciant, el se concentrează atât pe analiza fundamentală, cât și pe cea tehnică, în timp ce produce comentarii macroeconomice.

Opiniile sale au fost publicate în Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph și International Business Times și apare, de asemenea, ca comentator invitat regulat la BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business și SKY News.

Craig deține calitatea de membru deplin al Societății Analiștilor Tehnici și este recunoscut ca Tehnician Financiar Certificat de Federația Internațională a Analiștilor Tehnici.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Craig Erlam (vezi toate)