NZD/USD – US retail sales decline, PPI softens, New Zealand GDP next

The New Zealand dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, ending a 3-day rally that saw NZD/USD climb 160 points. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6205, down 0.50%.

New Zealand GDP projected to contract in Q4

New Zealand releases fourth-quarter GDP later today, with the markets braced for a slowdown compared to Q3. GDP is expected to decline 0.2% q/q in Q4, compared to a 2% gain in Q3. On an annualized basis, the consensus stands at 3.3% growth, down sharply from 6.4% in Q3.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been aggressive in its tightening, raising the cash rate to 4.75%. The central bank is in an all-out battle against inflation, but success remains elusive as inflation remains stickier than anticipated. In the fourth quarter, inflation came in at 7.2%, the same as in Q3 and a tick lower than the 7.3% gain in Q2. The sharp rise in rates hasn’t eased inflation but has hurt the economy. Retail sales for Q4 fell 0.6%, after an upwardly revised gain of 0.6% in Q3, and manufacturing sales fell sank to -0.4% in Q4, after a 5.0% gain in the third quarter. A weak GDP report will likely result in more criticism of the central bank’s rate policy, which is causing economic damage but has failed to rein in inflation.

The road from 7% inflation to the RBNZ’s target of 1-3% promises to be a long and bumpy journey, and the markets are expecting the central bank to raise rates as high as 5.25% in mid-2023 before taking a pause. That means more misery for households and businesses who are grappling with the double whammy of rising interest rates and red-hot inflation.

In the US, today’s numbers were dismal. The retail sales headline figure came in at -0.4% m/m, missing the estimate of -0.3% and well off the January reading of an upwardly revised 3.2%. The core rate slowed as expected to -0.1%, after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in January. The Producer Price Index also slowed in February and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell by -24.6, compared to -5.8 prior.  These unimpressive numbers have lent support to the case for a pause from the Fed at the next meeting. Currently, the markets have priced in the likelihood of a 25 bp hike or a pause at close to 50/50.

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NZD / USD Tehnic

• NZD/USD testează suport la 0.6212. Mai jos, există suport la 0.6149
• 0.6290 și 0.6353 sunt următoarele linii de rezistență

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Analist al pieței financiare cu o mare experiență, cu accent pe analiza fundamentală, comentariul zilnic al lui Kenneth Fisher acoperă o gamă largă de piețe, inclusiv valutare, acțiuni și mărfuri. Lucrările sale au fost publicate în mai multe publicații financiare majore online, inclusiv Investing.com, Seeking Alpha și FXStreet. Cu sediul în Israel, Kenny a contribuit cu MarketPulse din 2012.

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• Sursa: https://www.marketpulse.com/20230315/us-retail-sales-decline-ppi-softens-new-zealand-gdp-next/kfisher