Acțiunile devin negative, datele din SUA susțin alte creșteri mari ale ratelor, Ungaria crește, bitcoinul scade, deoarece aversiunea la risc este ferm în vigoare

Turnaround Tuesday disappeared faster than dessert does at the Moya household. US stocks turned negative after confidence and job opening data supported the argument for the Fed to stick to an aggressive stance in fighting inflation. ​ The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,000 level as more Fed speakers stood by Chairman Powell’s strong hawkish position. ​ Fed’s Bostic reiterated it is too early to declare victory in the inflation fight and Barkin stated that policy needs to be restrictive. ​ It seems like traders are leaning towards a 75 bp hike in September, a half-point in November and a 25bp increase in December. ​ Over the next few months, if the labor market doesn’t break and the consumer remains resilient, Wall Street might start pricing in rate hikes for February and March.

US data shines

US consumer confidence roared back as Americans started to believe the peak with inflation is in place. ​ The headline confidence reading rose to 103.2, well above the highest estimate and best level since May. Everything improved with the Conference Board’s August report as both the present situation and expectations survey posted hefty gains. ​

Job openings rebounded in July as 11.2 million jobs as employers continue to struggle attracting and retaining workers. ​ This is one critical component of the labor market that will help the Fed justify aggressive rate hikes. ​ If Americans have options to get employed, the Fed can ignore the rapid deterioration with the other economic releases. ​

FX

Hungary raised the benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point to 11.75%, the highest key rate in the EU. While their neighbors appear to be opting for a slower pace of tightening, Hungary’s economy is bracing for surging borrowing costs that will weaken their economy. The central bank is sending a clear message that a “decisive continuation” of its monetary tightening cycle is needed to battle persistent inflation. ​

The Hungarian forint rallied against the euro but is still within shooting distance of the record lows set in early July. ​ The forint might have further room to go against the dollar as peak tightening by the Fed is almost in place, while the ECB might be forced to deliver a couple of massive rate hikes in September and October. ​

Bitcoin

Risk aversion is firmly back in place and that sent Bitcoin below the $20,000 level. ​ If the broad selloff on Wall Street intensifies, bitcoin is looking very vulnerable here. ​ If the S&P declines by 3% over the next few days, that could be the catalyst to send bitcoin back towards the June lows. ​ ​ ​

Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Ed Moya

Analist senior de piață, America at OANDA

Cu o experiență de peste 20 de ani în tranzacționare, Ed Moya este analist de piață senior la OANDA, care produce analize interpiață de ultimă oră, acoperire a evenimentelor geopolitice, politicile băncii centrale și reacția pieței la știrile corporative. Expertiza sa particulară se află într-o gamă largă de clase de active, inclusiv FX, mărfuri, venit fix, acțiuni și criptomonede.

De-a lungul carierei sale, Ed a lucrat cu unele dintre cele mai importante case de brokeraj valutar, echipe de cercetare și departamente de știri de pe Wall Street, inclusiv Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions și Trading Advantage. Cel mai recent, a lucrat cu TradeTheNews.com, unde a furnizat analize de piață privind datele economice și știrile corporative.

Cu sediul la New York, Ed este un invitat obișnuit pe mai multe rețele financiare importante de televiziune, inclusiv CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business și Sky TV. Opiniile sale sunt de încredere de către cele mai renumite știri globale din lume, inclusiv Reuters, Bloomberg și Associated Press, și este citat în mod regulat în publicații importante precum MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times și The Wall Street Journal.

Ed este licențiat în economie de la Universitatea Rutgers.