Olje

Crude prices were under pressure as fears of an aggressive central bank tightening are driving concerns for a quickly weakening global economy and as the UAE plans to increase oil output. ​ The global economy is slowing and that has been troubling for the crude demand outlook. ​

Oil pared losses as Wall Street saw a broad reversal at the NY open. While pessimism remains elevated for global growth, extreme positioning before the Fed seems unlikely. ​

Gold

Gold is breaking as surging real rates show no signs of easing and as it fails to act like a safe-haven. ​ This is a brutally tough weak for bullion as so many central banks this week are contemplating jumbo-sized interest rate hikes. It is hard to get a handle on what will be the peak for the Fed and until that happens, gold will remain vulnerable. ​

Gold will eventually resume its role as a safe-haven, but the peak in the dollar needs to be put in place and that won’t happen for a couple of meetings. ​ What is driving the hesitation for scaling into a long-term position with gold is that investors are not convinced that even when the Fed pauses, that might not guarantee they are done hiking. ​ The risk that the Fed will pause and then have to restart raising rates is elevated and that has completely upended the gold trade. ​

Gold is due for a bounce and even if that happens post-Fed this week, a sustained rebound will only occur if more signs emerge that inflation is easing. ​

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Ed Moya

Višji tržni analitik, Amerika at OANDA

Z več kot 20-letnimi izkušnjami trgovanja je Ed Moya višji tržni analitik pri OANDA, ki pripravlja najnovejše medtržne analize, poroča o geopolitičnih dogodkih, politikah centralne banke in odzivu trga na novice podjetij. Njegovo posebno strokovno znanje se nanaša na širok nabor razredov sredstev, vključno z devizami, blagom, stalnim dohodkom, delnicami in kriptovalutami.

V svoji karieri je Ed sodeloval z nekaterimi vodilnimi borznimi posredniki, raziskovalnimi skupinami in oddelki za novice na Wall Streetu, vključno z Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions in Trading Advantage. Pred kratkim je sodeloval s TradeTheNews.com, kjer je zagotavljal tržno analizo gospodarskih podatkov in novic podjetij.

Ed s sedežem v New Yorku je reden gost več velikih finančnih televizijskih mrež, vključno s CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business in Sky TV. Njegovim mnenjem zaupajo najbolj priznane svetovne novice, vključno z Reuters, Bloomberg in Associated Press, redno pa ga citirajo tudi vodilne publikacije, kot so MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times in The Wall Street Journal.

Ed je diplomiral iz ekonomije na univerzi Rutgers.