Je Bitcoin res varovanje pred inflacijo?

The long-standing claim that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation has come to a fork in the road as inflation is soaring, but the bitcoin price is not.

To je uredniško mnenje avtorja Jordan Wirsz, investitor, nagrajeni podjetnik, avtor in voditelj podcasta.

Bitcoin’s correlation to inflation has been widely discussed since its inception. There are many narratives surrounding bitcoin’s meteoric rise over the last 13 years, but none so prevalent as the debasement of fiat currency, which is certainly considered inflationary. Now Bitcoin’s price is declining, leaving many Bitcoiners confused, as inflation is the highest it’s been in more than 40 years. How will inflation and monetary policy impact bitcoin’s price?

Najprej se pogovorimo o inflaciji. Mandat Federal Reserve vključuje ciljno inflacijo v višini 2 %, vendar smo pravkar natisnili 8.6-odstotna inflacija cen življenjskih potrebščin številka za mesec maj 2022. To je več kot 400 % cilja Feda. V resnici je inflacija verjetno celo višja od tiskanega CPI. Inflacija plač ne dohaja dejanske inflacije in gospodinjstva jo začenjajo močno čutiti. Razpoloženje potrošnikov je zdaj na ravni ves čas nizka.

Why isn’t bitcoin surging while inflation is running out of control? Although fiat debasement and inflation are correlated, they truly are two different things that can coexist in juxtaposition for periods of time. The narrative that bitcoin is an inflation hedge has been widely talked about, but bitcoin has behaved more as a barometer of monetary policy than of inflation.

Macro analysts and economists are feverishly debating our current inflationary environment, trying to find comparisons and correlations to inflationary periods in history — such as the 1940s and the 1970s — in an effort to forecast where we go from here. While there are certainly similarities to inflationary periods of the past, there is no precedent for bitcoin’s performance under circumstances such as these. Bitcoin was born only 13 years ago from the ashes of the Global Financial Crisis, which itself unleashed one of the greatest monetary expansions in history up until that time. For the last 13 years, bitcoin has seen an environment of easy monetary policy. The Fed has been dovish, and anytime hawkishness raised its ugly head, the markets rolled over and the Fed pivoted quickly to reestablish calm markets. Note that during the same period, bitcoin rose from pennies to $69,000, making it perhaps the greatest-performing asset of all time. The thesis has been that bitcoin is an “up and to the right asset,” but that thesis has never been challenged by a significantly tightening monetary policy environment, which we find ourselves at the present moment.

Stari rek, da je »tokrat drugače«, se lahko dejansko izkaže za resničnega. Fed se tokrat ne more obrniti, da bi zadušil trge. Inflacija je divje ušla nadzoru in Fed začenja iz okolja skoraj ničelne stopnje. Tukaj smo z 8.6-odstotno inflacijo in skoraj ničelnimi stopnjami, medtem ko gledamo recesijo naravnost v oči. Fed se ne trudi, da bi ohladil gospodarstvo ... Hodi v obraz ohlajajočega se gospodarstva, pri čemer je že ena četrtina negativne rasti bruto domačega proizvoda za nami v prvem četrtletju 1. Kvantitativno zaostrovanje se je šele začelo. Fed nima manevrskega prostora, da bi upočasnil ali omilil svoje zaostrovanje. To morajo, po mandatu, še naprej zvišuje stopnje, dokler inflacija ni pod nadzorom. Indeks stroškovnih pogojev medtem že kaže največje zaostrovanje v zadnjih desetletjih, s skoraj ničelnim gibanjem Fed. Že samo namig o zaostrovanju Fed je trge ušel izpod nadzora.

Na trgu obstaja velika napačna predstava o Fedu in njegovi zavezanosti zvišanju obrestnih mer. Pogosto slišim ljudi reči: »Fed ne more zvišali obrestne mere, ker če jih bodo, si ne bomo mogli privoščiti plačila dolga, zato Fed blefira in se bo slej kot prej obrnil.« Ta ideja je samo dejansko napačna. Fed nima omejitev glede zneska denarja, ki ga lahko porabi. Zakaj? Ker lahko tiska denar za kakršna koli plačila dolga, ki so potrebna za podporo vladi pri neplačilu. Preprosto je plačevati dolg, če imate centralno banko za tiskanje lastne valute, kajne?

Vem, kaj si mislite: »Počakajte malo, pravite, da mora Fed ubiti inflacijo z dvigovanjem tečajev. In če se obrestne mere dovolj dvignejo, lahko Fed natisne več denarja za plačilo svojih višjih obresti, kar je inflacijski? "

Vas že bolijo možgani?

This is the “debt spiral” and inflation conundrum that folks like Bitcoin legend Greg Foss talks about regularly.

Zdaj naj bom jasen, o zgornji razpravi o tem možnem izidu se na široko in živahno razpravlja. Fed je neodvisen subjekt in njegov mandat ni tiskanje denarja za plačilo naših dolgov. Vendar pa je povsem možno, da se politiki odločijo za spremembo mandata Feda glede na potencial za neverjetno škodljive okoliščine v prihodnosti. Ta zapletena tema in niz nians si zasluži veliko več razprave in razmišljanja, vendar bom to prihranil za drug članek v bližnji prihodnosti.

Zanimivo je, da ko je Fed objavil svojo namero, da zviša obrestne mere, da bi uničil inflacijo, trg ni čakal, da Fed to stori ... Trg je dejansko šel naprej in opravil delo Fed za to. V zadnjih šestih mesecih so se obrestne mere približno podvojile – kar je najhitrejša stopnja sprememb kdaj v zgodovini obrestnih mer. Libor je poskočil še bolj.

This record rate-increase has included mortgage rates, which have also doubled in the last six months, sending shivers through the housing market and crushing home affordability at a rate of change unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

Vse to se je z le majhnim, neznatnim dvigom Fed za 50 bazičnih točk in samim začetkom njihovega programa zvišanja obrestnih mer in odtekanja bilance stanja šele začelo maja! Kot lahko vidite, se je Fed premaknil komaj za centimeter, medtem ko so trgi sami od sebe prestopili prepad. Sama retorika Feda je povzročila srhljiv učinek na trge, ki ga je malokdo pričakoval. Poglejte optimizem globalne rasti ob novih najnižjih vrednostih vseh časov:

Kljub trenutni volatilnosti na trgih vlagatelji trenutno napačno izračunajo, da bo Fed umaknil zavoro, ko bo inflacija pod nadzorom in se bo upočasnila. Toda Fed lahko samo nadzoruje Povpraševanje stran inflacijske enačbe, ne pa dobavi strani enačbe, od koder prihaja večina inflacijskih pritiskov. V bistvu Fed poskuša uporabiti izvijač za rezanje lesene plošče. Napačno orodje za delo. Rezultat bi lahko bilo ohlajanje gospodarstva z vztrajno osnovno inflacijo, kar pa ne bo "mehak pristanek", na katerega mnogi upajo.

Ali Fed dejansko upa na trd pristanek? Ena misel, ki pride na misel, je, da morda dejansko potrebujemo trd pristanek, da bi Fedu omogočili ponovno znižanje obrestnih mer. To bi vladi zagotovilo možnost, da dejansko servisira svoj dolg s prihodnjimi davčnimi prihodki, v primerjavi z iskanjem poti za tiskanje denarja za plačilo našega dolga po vztrajno višjih stopnjah.

Čeprav obstajajo makro podobnosti med 1940-imi, 1970-imi in sedanjostjo, mislim, da na koncu zagotavlja manj vpogleda v prihodnjo smer cen sredstev kot cikli denarne politike.

Spodaj je grafikon stopnje spremembe denarne ponudbe ameriškega M2. Vidite lahko, da je v letih 2020–2021 prišlo do rekordnega porasta zaradi spodbude zaradi COVID-19, vendar poglejte pozno leto 2021 do danes in vidite enega najhitrejših padcev stopnje spremembe denarne ponudbe M2 v novejši zgodovini. 

In theory, bitcoin is behaving exactly as it should in this environment. Record-easy monetary policy equals “number go up technology.” Record monetary tightening equals “number go down” price action. It is quite easy to ascertain that bitcoin’s price is tied less to inflation, and more to monetary policy and asset inflation/deflation (as opposed to core inflation). The chart below of the FRED M2 money supply resembles a less volatile bitcoin chart … “number go up” technology — up and to the right.

Upoštevajte, da prvič po letu 2009 – pravzaprav Celoten zgodovina grafikona FRED M2 — linija M2 potencialno ustvarja a pomemben direction turn to the downside (look closely). Bitcoin is only a 13-year-old experiment in correlation analysis that many are still theorizing upon, but if this correlation holds, then it stands to reason that bitcoin will be much more closely tied to monetary policy than it will inflation.

Če Fed ugotovi, da mora tiskati bistveno more money, it would potentially coincide with an uptick in M2. That event could reflect a “monetary policy change” significant enough to start a new bull market in bitcoin, regardless of whether or not the Fed starts easing rates.

I often think to myself, “What is the catalyst for people to allocate a portion of their portfolio to bitcoin?” I believe we are beginning to see that catalyst unfold right in front of us. Below is a total-bond-return index chart that demonstrates the significant losses bond holders are taking on the chin right now. 

"Tradicionalni portfelj 60/40" se uničuje na obeh straneh hkrati, prvič v zgodovini. Tradicionalno varno zatočišče tokrat ne deluje, kar poudarja možnost, da je "tokrat drugače." Obveznice so lahko od zdaj naprej alokacija mrtve teže za portfelje – ali še hujše.

It seems that most traditional portfolio strategies are broken or breaking. The only strategy that has worked consistently over the course of millennia is to build and secure wealth with the simple ownership of what is valuable. Work has always been valuable and that is why proof-of-work is tied to true forms of value. Bitcoin is the only thing that does this well in the digital world. Gold does it too, but compared to bitcoin, it cannot fulfill the needs of a modern, interconnected, global economy as well as its digital counterpart can. If bitcoin didn’t exist, then gold would be the only answer. Thankfully, bitcoin exists.

Regardless of whether inflation stays high or calms down to more normalized levels, the bottom line is clear: Bitcoin will likely start its next bull market when monetary policy changes, even if ever so slightly or indirectly.

This is a guest post by Jordan Wirsz. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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• Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/is-bitcoin-really-a-hedge-against-inflation