Ali so gospodarski obeti priložnost? Tukaj je 5 načinov, kako lahko banke pomagajo strankam v času stiske (Andrew Beatty)

It’s not news that bad news sells – and there’s certainly no shortage of gloomy global macroeconomic forecasts right now. But there IS an opposing view championed by the late journalist Norman Cousins: “Optimism doesn’t wait on facts. It deals with prospects.
Pessimism is a waste of time.” This blog discusses why bankers should be tech-forward optimists to help customers during difficult times.

Prevladuje pesimizem glede svetovnega gospodarstva. Mednarodni denarni sklad (IMF) je nedavno znižal napoved svetovne rasti za prihodnje leto na 2.7 % in opozoril, da "najhujše šele prihaja in da bo za mnoge ljudi leto 2023 videti kot recesija."[1]
Če ne upoštevamo svetovne finančne krize leta 2008 in vrhunca pandemije leta 2020, je to najšibkejši profil rasti po letu 2001.

Kot poroča CNBC, je Združeno kraljestvo po podatkih S&P Global Ratings že v celoletni recesiji, medtem ko se Evropa sooča s težko zimo in naraščajočim kreditnim tveganjem.[2]
V ZDA je Federal Reserve letos šestkrat zvišala obrestne mere v prizadevanju za boj proti inflaciji, ki je na najvišji ravni v zadnjih 6 letih. Zdi se verjetno, da bodo trgi ostali nestanovitni in še naprej padali, preden si bodo opomogli.

Ameriško gospodarstvo se sooča z "zelo, zelo resno" mešanico nasprotnih vetrov, opozarja Jamie Dimon, izvršni direktor JPMorgan[3],
while in the U.K., house prices are forecast to fall. And the inconvenient truth is that, while the Fed and the Bank of England raise interest rates to tackle inflation, this puts the brakes on the real economy and may well slow consumer spending and weaken
podjetja.

Pesimizem proti optimizmu – stvar mnenja?

Economic pessimism may seem universal, but in all probability there will be an upside and a downside over the coming months. The truth is that we simply don’t know what will happen. Economic activity levels are ultimately influenced by expectations, so pessimism
can quickly become a self-fulfilling philosophy.

The good news is that optimism can be contagious too, but it is often more difficult to detect and perhaps harder to believe. Why? Research suggests that not all emotions are created equal and as humans we are prone to a negativity bias. This is part of
an inherent defense mechanism that’s designed not only to look out for danger, but also to keep it front of mind.[4]

There’s overwhelming evidence that bad news gets more attention, more clicks, and more revenue for the publishers. In fact, Google search results react to this pattern by giving people what they seemingly want: more bad news. So, even in good times, pessimism
can triumph.
[5]

Ni vse slabo

Če odmislimo pesimizem, je v trenutni temi nekaj svetlobe:

• Stopnja brezposelnosti ostaja nizka, številna merila gospodarske aktivnosti rastejo (čeprav počasneje kot lani)

• Najnovejši podatki v ZDA kažejo, da se inflacija začenja umirjati, težave z dobavno verigo pa se začenjajo stabilizirati.

• Potrošniška poraba ostaja pozitivna, saj potrošniki še naprej zapravljajo prihranke, ki so si jih nabrali med pandemijo

Pomembna točka je, da so denarni agregati ravno to in da ima vsaka oseba in vodja podjetja edinstveno perspektivo poti pred seboj, ki pogosto temelji bolj na instinktu kot na dejstvih.

Banke in mehanizem denarnega prenosa

Banke so ujete sredi tega vrtinca čustev. Ko centralna banka
zviša "uradno" obrestno mero, hitro vpliva na obrestne mere denarnega trga, posojilne in depozitne obrestne mere. Tako so se banke znašle v nezavidljivem položaju »monetarnega transmisijskega mehanizma« med denarno politiko in realnim gospodarstvom. 

In many respects banks are the messengers of monetary policy. Often, they must convey unwelcome news about the cost of borrowing and must also manage business and consumer expectations about the likely direction of interest rates, exchange rates and other
monetary variables. From a customer’s perspective, this is often unwelcome news.

Banke kot zaupanja vredni svetovalci

Banks cannot influence monetary policy, but they can help customers interpret it and hedge against future uncertainty. Many banks already provide financial wellness tools to help individuals make more of their money, and modern technology can take things
to the next level, for example harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and data to do more for small business and retail customers alike.

Tukaj je 5 načinov, kako lahko banke pomagajo:

1. Plačila v realnem času enable businesses to pay exactly on time, all the time. This increases convenience for consumers but is especially beneficial for small and medium size businesses. Real-time payments also serve as a quick way to reduce transaction
   stroški.
2. Napredno upravljanje gotovine rešitve lahko pomagajo podjetjem racionalizirati procese, optimizirati donose in avtomatizirati vsakodnevna opravila, da zagotovijo stroškovno učinkovito upravljanje gotovine in obratnega kapitala.
3. Prilagojene kreditne rešitve lahko izkoristi moč podatkov za razumevanje in napovedovanje denarnega toka ter uskladi kredit s poslovno strategijo. Z jasnejšim pogledom na pot pred seboj lahko podjetje načrtuje nepredvidene dogodke, kot so naraščajoče obrestne mere ali inflacija. 
4. Digitalni pristop k financiranju omogoča celostni pogled na gibanje gotovine ter poenostavi vloge za kredit in odločanje.
5. Storitve z dodano vrednostjo pomagajo podjetjem, da postanejo učinkovitejša, na primer pri izdajanju računov in upravljanju plačil.

Z uporabo sodobne tehnologije, svežim razmišljanjem in pozitivnim pogledom lahko banke svojim strankam pomagajo varno preživeti težke čase. Uspešne banke in bankirji bodo postali zaupanja vredni svetovalci, na katere se stranke dolgoročno zanašajo.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-for-2023-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come.html

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/uk-already-in-a-full-year-recession-as-europe-faces-tough-winter-sp-says.html

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-warns-us-likely-to-tip-into-recession-soon.html

[4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3652533/

[5] https://blog.reputationx.com/what-makes-us-drawn-to-negative-online-content