Neuporabna dvoumnost ECB

European stocks are edging higher ahead of the long bank holiday weekend, ending the week not far from where they started as investors mull the latest policy decisions, inflation data and earnings.

There’s been a number of interest rate hikes this week, some more expected than others, while the ECB has instead opted for the usual cocktail of unhelpful ambiguity. Anyone hoping for a hawkish hint ahead of its next meeting and forecasts will no doubt be very disappointed, albeit not surprised.

It was, of course, very kind of President Lagarde to clear up a few things. For example, net asset purchases will end in the third quarter – yes, while other central banks are engaging in fear-induced rate hikes and quantitative tightening, the ECB is gradually winding down QE – and the conclusion of the process could come early or late in the quarter.

Following the conclusion of its asset purchases, the ECB will start raising rates some time after. What constitutes some time? That could be anything from a week to several months. I hope that’s cleared everything up. Don’t we all feel much wiser for having followed that press conference?

I understand the ECB is extremely hesitant to guide the market in the absence of up-to-date economic projections but days like today just make me wish they’d stick to quarterly meetings. There is nothing of substance to take away from today’s meeting and I can’t help but think the market remains far too ambitious in its interest rate expectations this year for a central bank that still thinks bond purchases are warranted.

Of course, its situation is far more uncertain than others, given its proximity and higher exposure to the war in Ukraine, while wage inflation remains far more muted than elsewhere. But it’s clearly not learned the lessons from other central banks and may be forced somewhere down the line to drastically change its stance. Whether that will be this year, I’m not convinced.

Bitcoin heading for further pain?

Spodbuden odboj bitcoina v sredo je bil kratkotrajen, kriptovaluta pa je v četrtek ponovno v rdečih številkah. Zdi se, da se je boril okoli sredine ponedeljkove razprodaje, kar bi lahko razumeli kot medvedji signal. Nisem prepričan, da bom o tem preveč bral, vendar je v zadnjih tednih zagotovo izgubil ves zagon. Še naprej trguje širše v svojem kanalu okrevanja leta 2022 in nedavni cenovni ukrepi kažejo, da bi se lahko usmeril k novemu premiku proti najnižjim vrednostim. To je približno 10 % od trenutne cene in preboj pod tu bi lahko bil zelo medvedji razvoj.

Če si želite ogledati vse današnje gospodarske dogodke, si oglejte naš gospodarski koledar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

• Coinsmart. Najboljša evropska borza bitcoinov in kriptovalut.
• Platoblockchain. Web3 Metaverse Intelligence. Razširjeno znanje. PROST DOSTOP.
• CryptoHawk. Altcoin radar. Brezplačen preizkus.
• Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20220414/ecbs-unhelpful-ambiguity/