Recuperarea continuă în ciuda datelor dezamăgitoare

The stock market recovery continues on Wednesday, despite a selection of disappointing data releases from Europe and the US.

We’ve seen a decent rebound off the January lows and that only appears to have accelerated this week which will come as a huge relief to investors after a rather turbulent start to the year. And coming at a time when so many rate hikes are now priced in for a variety of central banks, it’s possible that peak-tightening fear is behind us.

There is still potential, of course, for further action to be priced in but whether that will happen in the near term, or generate the same kind of anxiety, may depend on where it comes and to what degree.

ECB unlikely to dramatically change course despite high inflation  

We’re seeing rate hike expectations rising in the euro area, for example, despite the continued pushback at such action by the central bank in recent meetings. We’ve seen this happen repeatedly though and eventually, the central bank seems to reluctantly follow.

With inflation in the eurozone hitting 5.1% in January, well above market expectations, will we see a similar pattern when the ECB meets tomorrow? In the absence of fresh economic projections, I expect we won’t see any dramatic shifts tomorrow but we could see slight tweaks in the tone and language that pave the way for something more significant in March.

ADP brushed aside as omicron takes its toll in January

So much is already priced in for US interest rates and it’s hard to imagine the direction of travel changing in the near term, given the broad range of indicators continuing to point to higher price pressures. That’s particularly true of data like the ADP collected for January, at a time when omicron caused major distortions which reduces its usefulness. Expectations for Friday’s jobs report are already very low and today’s ADP may reduce them further but it doesn’t really change the outlook for interest rates or the economy.

Profit-taking at USD 40,000 a concern?

Bitcoin’s rebound has been encouraging over the last week or so but it’s so far failed to recapture USD 40,000 which may cause some discomfort among those hoping the low is behind it. The improvement in risk appetite in the broader markets is naturally supporting the price and could ultimately be what drives it through this important resistance level, as long as it holds. But we appear to be seeing some profit-taking around here which is contributing to the 4% decline today.

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Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Cu sediul la Londra, Craig Erlam s-a alăturat OANDA în 2015 ca analist de piață. Cu mulți ani de experiență ca analist și comerciant al pieței financiare, el se concentrează atât pe analize fundamentale, cât și pe analize tehnice, producând în același timp comentarii macroeconomice. Opiniile sale au fost publicate în Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph și International Business Times și apare, de asemenea, ca un comentator obișnuit la BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business și SKY News. Craig deține un membru deplin la Societatea analiștilor tehnici și este recunoscut ca tehnician financiar certificat de Federația internațională a analiștilor tehnici.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Craig Erlam (vezi toate)

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20220202/recovery-continues-despite-disappointing-data/