Directorul Global Macro al Fidelity: Reglementarea Stablecoin va crește adoptarea instituțională a cripto-ului

On Friday (August 12), Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, explained how upcoming stablecoin regulation could increase the demand for crypto.

In March 2021, Timmer published a 12-page research paper on Bitcoin (title: “Understanding Bitcoin: Does bitcoin belong in asset allocation considerations?”).

Timmer a început prin a spune că îl intenționează pe al lui hârtie pentru a servi drept „un scurt introductiv în limba engleză, dar și pentru a evalua, într-un mod semnificativ, propunerea de valoare a bitcoin în legătură cu alocarea activelor”.

After his study of Bitcoin, here were some of the conclusions he came to:

• … bitcoin a devenit mainstream, considerat deja o clasă de active legitimă de tot mai mulți investitori.
• … bitcoin are atât o dinamică convingătoare a ofertei (S2F), cât și o dinamică a cererii (Legea lui Metcalfe).
• "... bitcoin câștigă credibilitate și, ca analog digital al aurului, dar cu o convexitate mai mare... bitcoin, în timp, va lua mai multă cotă de piață de la aur.

Timmer a spus că „dacă aurul este acum competitiv cu obligațiunile, iar randamentele obligațiunilor sunt aproape de zero (sau negative), poate că are sens să „înlocuim o parte din expunerea nominală a obligațiunilor unui portofoliu cu aur și active care se comportă ca aur”.

A terminat spunând:

If bitcoin is a legitimate store of value, is scarcer than gold, and comes complete with a potentially exponential demand dynamic, then is it now worth considering for inclusion in a portfolio (at some prudent level and at least alongside other alternatives, such as real estate, commodities, and certain index-linked securities)?

În ciuda numeroaselor riscuri discutate, inclusiv factori precum volatilitatea, concurenții și intervenția politică pentru unii, răspunsul poate fi „da”, cel puțin în măsura în care acel „da” se aplică doar componentelor de pe partea 40 a 60/40. Pentru acei investitori, întrebarea bitcoin nu mai este „dacă”, ci „cât?”.

On Friday, Timmer appeared as a guest — as part of a panel that also included Raoul Pal and Kevin O’Leary — on an episode of Ran Neuner’s “Crypto Banter” podcast that was streamed live on YouTube.

This is what Timmer had to say with regard to upcoming stablecoin regulation and how it could affect the crypto market:

Fidelity, which I probably represent, we’ve been in Bitcoin since 2014. Not a lot of people appreciate as a legacy financial services firm how how long we have been involved… I was part of a delegation in Austin, Texas, in June [2022] for the Consensus [event], and we had the regulators, we had the senators who are proponents of the space, and we had the chair of the CFTC there.

And there was a lot of consensus — for lack of a better word — that at least regulating the stables is kind of the ultimate no-brainer. You don’t even have to worry about whether it’s a security or commodity. So, that was pretty low-hanging fruit. And obviously, it’s good that it’s hopefully going to happen because it will legitimise that the space, and it will will help the institutional adoption. It will make institutions feel a little bit more comfortable that there are actually some guardrails involved, even though it’s only the stable side and not the actual space itself, but at least it’ll be a start.

On July 8, Timmer shared his thoughts on the price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum:

El a continuat să spună:

• At its recent low of $17,600, Bitcoin is now below even my more conservative S-curve model, which is based on the internet adoption curve. (See chart above.)
• Looking at Bitcoin’s network growth, it’s clear that the adoption curve is tracking the more asymptotic internet adoption curve, rather than the more exponential mobile phone curve. Per Metcalfe’s Law, slower network growth suggests a more modest price appreciation.
• However, based on a simple power regression line, Bitcoin’s network appears to be intact.
• That continued growth in Bitcoin’s network, combined with lower prices, means that Bitcoin’s valuation is coming down.
• Folosesc prețul pe milioane de adrese diferite de zero ca o estimare pentru evaluarea Bitcoin, iar graficul de mai jos arată că evaluarea este până la nivelurile din 2013, chiar dacă prețul a revenit abia la nivelurile din 2020. Cu alte cuvinte, Bitcoin este ieftin.
• Dacă Bitcoin este ieftin, atunci poate că Ethereum este mai ieftin. Dacă ETH este acolo unde era BTC în urmă cu patru ani, atunci analogul de mai jos sugerează că Ethereum ar putea fi aproape de fund.

Image Credit

Imagine recomandată prin Pixabay