Descoperă valoarea companiilor de tehnologie chineze: comparație aprofundată între Yeahka și Square

HONG KONG, 2 iunie 2021 - (ACN Newswire) - Written by Francis Lun, CEO of GEO Securities Limited. We all want to find the next 10x stock, but we know it will not be easy. One of the easier ways would be to take reference of comparable stocks. Look for one among US stocks and see if it has a Chinese counterpart. Today, the “twin brothers” we want to look at are Yeahka and Square. In 2020, Square’s price rose near eight folds in less than a year. Will Yeahka be able to replicate Square’s “eight folds a year” miracle in the Chinese stock market? For more details: please go to https://www.acnnewswire.com/pdf/files/210602.pdf

Square este o companie de plăți mobile din Statele Unite.

În februarie 2009, Jim McKelvey, unul dintre fondatorii Square, și-a vândut artizanatul din sticlă la San Francisco. Cu toate acestea, deoarece majoritatea americanilor nu au economii și folosesc cardul de credit pentru cheltuielile zilnice, Jim McKelvey a pierdut câțiva clienți, deoarece nu a putut accepta plăți cu cardul de credit.

That was why Jim McKelvey founded Square – to provide credit card payment collection service to small merchants like him. Supported by any 3G or Wifi network, users (consumers or merchants) could use Square’s mobile card reader with their smartphones via the Square App to make purchases with their credit cards. Consumers and merchants can make or receive payments anywhere and with corresponding information kept. The technical barriers and hardware requirements of credit card consumption and payment were thus markedly lowered.

În 2020, cu numerar care a inundat piața, Square a atras atenția în rândul investitorilor și în mai puțin de un an, prețul acțiunilor sale a crescut de aproape opt ori. Față de minimul din 2016, prețul acțiunilor sale a crescut cel mai mult cu peste 30 de ori. (Graficul 1)

Back tracking Square’s bullish history, its share price went through two rounds of strong growth – more than 11 times between February 2016 and September 2018 and close to eight times between March 2020 and February 2021.

In that first round, the main reason was Square indeed helped a large number of small merchants solve payment problems they faced hence got notice quickly, and the total transaction payment volume of its payment business continued to grow. Came November 2017, Square opened its C-terminal application Cash App to Bitcoin trading, which sparked market speculation, sending its share price to record high. The sharp increase in its share price since last year has been mainly the result of the Bitcoin boom and the soaring monthly active Cash App users. In 2020, its Bitcoin trading related revenue shot up by 785% year-on-year, accounting for 48% of its total revenue, which is proof of market recognition of Square’s C-terminal business.

Knowing the reasons behind Square’s magnificent growth, can one like it be found in China? After careful studies, a match was found among listed companies in Hong Kong -Yeahka, currently in a state rather similar to Square in 2017.

1. De ce Yeahka este descris ca versiunea chineză a Square?

1) Același model de afaceri

Ambele companii sunt platforme tehnologice bazate pe plăți care asigură clienții prin furnizarea de servicii comerciale și consumatori de plăți și servicii comerciale, plus servicii ulterioare cu valoare adăugată pentru a obține profit mai mare.

De exemplu, pentru Square, după lansarea Square Card Reader și Square Stand, produse precum Square Market, Square Order, Square Capital și Square Payroll au fost lansate și pentru a răspunde nevoilor comercianților, iar companiile precum Caviar și Weebly au fost apoi achiziționate de către extinderea acoperirii sale comerciale la servicii, inclusiv gestionarea magazinelor, comanda și livrarea meselor, împrumuturi și dezvoltarea personală a site-ului web.

În ceea ce privește Yeahka, de când a fost înființat în 2011, a lansat treptat platforma sa integrată de soluții de plată și serviciile de afaceri cu tehnologie. În 2020, a achiziționat furnizorul de servicii de marketing pentru performanța conținutului Chuangxinzhong, care și-a văzut ecosistemul de servicii care se concentrează pe nevoile comercianților care iau forma treptat.

2) Structură similară a veniturilor (Graficul 2.1-2.4)

In terms of revenue structure, Yeahka’s payment business accounted for 80% of the total revenue in 2020, where as that of Square accounted for 88.4% in 2017. As for gross profit structure, Yeahka’s payment business accounted for 65% of the total gross profit in 2020, whereas that of Square accounted for 82.2% of the total in 2017.

This shows that both companies rely on payment business for revenue and that business has become their largest profit contributor. Although value-added services business has improved to some extent, it still has a long way to go before becoming the companies’ pillar business.

3) Rata de creștere similară a activității de plăți în perioada de timp corespunzătoare (Grafic 3.1)

The CAGR of total transaction payment volume of Square’s payment business was 35.4% between 2015 and 2017, whereas that of Yeahka’s payment business was 36.9% between 2018 and 2020. Yeahka won by a narrow margin.

Driven by the GPV growth, Square’s payment business revenue grew at a CAGR of 35.2% between 2015 and 2017, and that of Yeahka increased at a CAGR of 40.9% between 2018 and 2020, the numbers are relatively close.

4) Aceeași capacitate de abilitare tehnologică (Graficul 4)

Abilitarea tehnologică sună grozav și acolo sus. Dar, pur și simplu, companiile de plăți din trecut satisfaceau doar cererea de colectare a plăților IMM-urilor și cu date de plată, alte companii, cum ar fi publicitatea și promovarea, raliurile clienților, funcționarea traficului din domeniul privat și gestionarea cateringului, au încolțit și companiile au început să obțină profituri.

For example, in the era of the Internet economy, traffic has shifted from offline to online, thus a company cannot just rely on the physical store to bring in customers. Small and micro merchants who use Square and Yeahka’s payment collection systems are like going into a data space of a different dimension. Based on customer buying habits analysis, the platform can conduct targeted marketing and promotion and recommend stores more suitable to consumers, thus bring in more traffic for them.

At present, Square has acquired Evenly in the business of consumption data sharing and application, the food delivery service provider Caviar, the “Order in Advance” F&B delivery website, and the build your own online store service provider Weebly, etc. As for Yeahka, it has invested in or acquired companies including Zhibaiwei, Haoshengyi, Chuangxinzhong.

With their businesses becoming more and more diversified, payment business is no longer their sole growth driver. New business like technology-enabled business services have started showing potential in replacing payment business in driving growth of the companies. Revenue and gross profit of Square’s new businesses accounted for only 13.3% of the total revenue of the company in 2017, and in 2020, Square’s revenue from non-payment business accounted for 65.3% of the total and became the main source of revenue of the company. In those terms, there is a certain gap between Yeahka and Square, but Yeahka is growing fast. According to our estimate, the conversion rate of Yeahka’s payment service customers to commercial services customers is about 18%, which is more than double the 7.35% in 2019.

2. Analiza comparativă a datelor financiare: Yeahka nu este inferior

1) Investiții în cercetare și dezvoltare (Graficul 5)

From R&D investment, Square’s related expenses are significantly higher than that of Yeahka, so did the corresponding rate, in which Yeahka still has room for increase.

2) Rentabilitate (Graficul 6.1)

The gross profit margin of Square’s transaction services business increased from 35.93% in 2017 to 41.98% in 2020, and the gross profit margin of its subscription and services business increased from 70.03% in 2017 to 85.53% in 2020, indicative of the economies of scale its main businesses enjoy.

Yeahka’s gross profit margin in 2019 was about 10 percentage point less than in 2017. On the decline in gross profit margin of its main business, Yeahka said the main reasons were the change in business model from direct marketing to cooperating with distribution channels, leading to a substantial increase in commission payment, plus the drop in service fees market trend commanded since September 2016.

Din perspectivele ROE și ROA, profitabilitatea Yeahka este semnificativ mai puternică decât cea a Square între 2020A și 2022E. (Graficul 7.1-7.2)

3) Creștere și evaluare (Graficul 8.1-8.3)

According to forecasts of securities firms, the two companies can still maintain higher than double-digit growth. Square’s total revenue is expected to grow by 31.37% and 25.16% year-on-year in 2021 and 2022, and its net profit attributable to the parent will surge by 808% and 768%, whereas Yeahka’s total revenue is expected to increase by 55.43% and 27.12% in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and its net profit attributable to the parent will increase by 30.05% and 34.42% respectively.

3. Oportunități și avantaje pentru Yeahka

Din analiza și comparația de mai sus, se poate trage concluzia că: atât Yeahka, cât și Square sunt companii de tehnologie financiară bazate pe plăți care conectează comercianții și consumatorii individuali prin plată. Cu alte cuvinte, ele deservesc aceleași comunități. De exemplu, pentru comercianții B-end, atât Square, cât și Yeahka au lansat o serie de servicii cu valoare adăugată, cum ar fi plasarea publicitară, creșterea traficului clienților și microfinanțarea. Din această perspectivă, nu este nedrept să spunem că Yeahka este versiunea chineză a Square.

However, on the C-end, Square has paved its own path and launched the Cash App to provide individual consumers with a range of functions, including personal saving, money transfer and collection, and consumption and investment. The App is known as the US version of “Alipay”. Then, it started pursuing Bitcoin trading service business, sending its C-end business into explosive growth, and all investors’ eyes were drawn to the company. For Yeahka though, for it will grow into a global technology company like Square in the future, it has a major challenge to overcome, that is, whether it can find the way to break through into the C-end market.

Credem că Yeahka nu numai că poate găsi o modalitate de a pătrunde în afacerea C-end, ci și că afacerea va fi, deoarece un factor principal de creștere al companiei în viitor. Există două motive pentru aceasta:

În primul rând, Liu Yingqi, fondatorul Yeahka, este fostul director general al Tencent Tenpay, astfel știe cu regulile jocului pe piața C-end.

În al doilea rând, în China, rata de penetrare a plăților pe bază de cod QR este ridicată, volumul tranzacțiilor crește rapid, iar Yeahka este lider în arena de plăți a codului QR din țară. China are o populație de peste 1.4 miliarde, iar dezvoltarea internetului mobil este mai matură în raport cu SUA. În plus, plata bazată pe cod QR a pătruns în toate industriile și este extrem de acceptabilă pentru oamenii din China. Între 2017 și 2019, volumul tranzacțiilor de plată pe bază de cod QR din China a crescut de la 0.9 trilioane RMB la 9.5 trilioane RMB, sau la un CAGR de 224.9%, iar numărul se așteaptă să crească mai mult până la 33.4 trilioane RMB până în 2023, reprezentând un CAGR de 36.9% între 2019 și 2023. Folosind propriile avantaje și folosind datele de consum ale consumatorilor individuali în masă efectuând plăți pe bază de cod QR, Yeahka este capabil să dezvolte o varietate de servicii cu valoare adăugată, precum precizia servicii de marketing. Mai mult, după ce Yeahka a adunat o cantitate mare de date de consum personal, ar putea accelera lansarea aplicațiilor sale C-end.

In addition, with the SaaS industry in China growing at high speed, there is ample room for imagination about the future of Yeahka’s B-end business.

Conform statisticilor Synergy, ponderea SaaS pe piața globală de software a crescut de la mai puțin de 2% (în 2009) la 23% (în 2019). Dimensiunea pieței globale SaaS a crescut cu 25% în 2019 și se așteaptă să mențină o creștere rapidă de aproximativ 20% în următorii câțiva ani. (Graficul 9)

The SaaS industry in China is also expanding quickly. Between 2013 and 2019, the size of China’s SaaS market had increased from RMB3 billion to RMB18 billion, representing a CAGR of 31.5%, and it is expected to further increase to RMB59 billion by 2023, representing a CAGR of 34.4% between 2019 and 2023.

Hence, Yeahka’s SaaS product business has a high “ceiling” and huge development potential.

In recent decades, Chinese companies have tried very hard to learn from their US counterparts on the technology and business fronts, so there are many companies in China and the US that are like twins, such as Tesla and NIO, Google and Baidu, Amazon and Alibaba… . These companies have not only achieved business success, but have also brought beyond expectation returns to investors from share price leaps.

In the payment technology field, the US has Square. After combing through information and comparing, we found it has a like in China – Yeahka. To be precise, the business model of Yeahka now is very similar to that of Square before the explosive growth of its Cash App business.

As for whether Yeahka can replicate Square’s share price miracle, it depends on two things: first, whether Yeahka’s technology-enabled business can maintain fast growth as the SaaS industry in China grows at yet higher speed, and secondly and more critical, whether Yeahka, like Square, can find a way to break through into the C-end market.

Dacă Yeahka este capabil să facă acest lucru în ambele, nu este imposibil ca acesta să reproducă miracolul Square și să vadă prețul acțiunii sale crescând de opt ori într-un an.

Subiect: Rezumatul comunicatului de presă
Sursa: YEAHKA LIMITATE
Sectoare: Carduri și plăți, Cloud și Enterprise
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