How did the Bold Predictions for 2022 fare?

Every year since 2013, HLTV.org has ranked the top 20 CS:GO players of the year. A regular feature of the rankings from 2016 onwards has been for each player among the top 20 to make a “bold prediction,” a peer who they believe will excel in the following year, with the likes of David “⁠frozen⁠” Čerňanský, Russel “⁠Twistzz⁠” Van Dulken, and Ismail “⁠refrezh⁠” Ali receiving the nod from their fellow competitors in times gone by.

The criteria for predictions has become more established in recent years, with the 2021 ranking forcing players to pick prospects who are 20 years old or younger and have no previous experience playing for a top 20 team. Given these constraints, how did the players named by the top 20 get on in 2022?

16-year-old m0NESY was the most obvious choice for the category heading into 2022, having just completed a transfer from NAVI Junior to G2. The youngster had impressed in 2021 with a 1.36 average rating over 114 maps on the lower-tier circuit, and his superstar performances with the AWP didn’t go unnoticed, drawing bold predictions from six different players in the top 20.

Granted, two were his soon-to-be-teammates, Nikola “⁠NiKo⁠” Kovač and Nemanja “⁠huNter-⁠” Kovač, but m0NESY also got the nod from two-time No. 1 player in the world Oleksandr “⁠s1mple⁠” Kostyliev, as well as Valeriy “⁠b1t⁠” Vakhovskiy, Benjamin “⁠blameF⁠” Bremer, and Martin “⁠stavn⁠” Lund.

“I believe he has a really bright future and he is only 16-years-old,” stavn had said of m0NESY. “He did really well in NAVI Junior, and now he will finally get the chance to play for a world class team like G2. Maybe it will take some time for him to get used to playing tier 1 opposition, but I think that he will become super good with the right guidance from his teammates.”

Faith was placed in the Russian player to deliver despite his unproven track record against top opposition on LAN, and he was able to make good on those hopes early on, posting 1.13 and 1.15 ratings at his first two offline appearances with G2 at the BLAST Premier Spring Groups and IEM Katowice, even mustering a runner-up finish at the latter.

His performances continued to hover in that range for the opening half of the year, flashes of brilliance and highlight moments aplenty affirming his place among the top of the bold predictions list. It wasn’t until after the tournament break in August that m0NESY truly began to shine, however, his individual level rising in the wake of the additions of Rasmus “⁠HooXi⁠” Nielsen and Justin “⁠jks⁠” Savage as he quickly became G2‘s most consistent and fearsome player — no easy feat on a team that also contained NiKo and huNter-.

m0NESY quickly dwarfed his 1.12 average rating from the first nine events of the year as he put on a clinic in the final five months of 2022, boasting a superb 1.26 rating and 1.25 impact rating en route to becoming G2‘s highest-rated member. He helped his team to a 3-4th place finish in ESL Pro League Season 16, posting a 1.25 rating over 15 maps, only for a shadow was to be cast on the dying moments of the year as G2 missed out on making the IEM Rio Major through the RMR, faltering in 12-14th place despite m0NESY continuing to perform.

After sitting out and watching the second Major of the year from the sidelines, m0NESY and G2 came barreling back at the BLAST Fall Final and World Final, managing to win the latter with m0NESY being crowned the Most Valuable Player following a 1.24-rated performance.

The Russian superstar delivered and surpassed the expectations set upon him by his peers in the previous year, showing that he belonged in the conversation for the top 20 players of 2022. On top of that, he cast aside any doubts that he would be unable to perform against top tier opposition, with his rating only increasing when he played better opposition throughout the year.

Though admittedly not a bold prediction in and of itself, m0NESY did live up to the words said by blameF in his top 20 interview: “I really think he is an amazing player already. He can most definitely be one of the best players in the world. I hope he does well and gets a good start in tier-one so he can build up some confidence quickly.”

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Another academy player who broke out onto the international stage in 2022 was xertioN, who was Mathieu “⁠ZywOo⁠” Herbaut, Twistzz, and Helvijs “⁠broky⁠” Saukants‘s bold prediction to make a mark at the top level this year. The Israeli rifler was impressive in MOUZ NXT throughout 2021, but was initially passed over for an upgrade to the main roster as MOUZ first promoted Ádám “⁠torzsi⁠” Torzsás and Jon “⁠JDC⁠” de Castro.

xertioN spent the first eight months of the year continuing to ply his trade for MOUZ NXT, helping them to win two more WePlay Academy League trophies — their fourth in a row. His excellent rifle work and aggressive playstyle made him stand out, and his potential to perform was something that was a highlight for the trio of players who expected him to break out in 2022.

“I think xertioN has all the means to play at the highest level for many years,” ZywOo had said. “I watched him play a few times and was impressed with his potential. I think he will be in the top tier very soon.”

“It’s difficult to pick when you don’t keep track of the lower tier games,” Twistzz added in his own top 20 interview. “But from watching the academy games I’d have to say xertioN, I think he also deserves the upgrade to the main MOUZ team.”

That upgrade wouldn’t come around until after the August tournament break, when MOUZ decided to slot xertioN in for Aurimas “⁠Bymas⁠” Pipiras despite recording their best result at a Big Event in over two years by making it to the playoffs of IEM Cologne, and completing a successful bid to qualify for the IEM Road to Rio Europe RMR. Bymas was left on the sidelines and ousted from the Major cycle while xertioN was given the chance to shine, and it was an opportunity he seized with gusto as MOUZ headed into ESL Pro League Season 16.

xertioN‘s addition allowed MOUZ to shift around their roles and place frozen into more lurk and support positions, a change that enabled frozen to shine, but also one that put pressure on xertioN to deliver. There were some growing pains as xertioN adjusted to his roles and the way the team needed him to play, with the player himself speaking about his integration into the MOUZ system at the Road to Rio RMR, but the team still managed respectable showings at Pro League (5-8th), qualified for the Challengers Stage of the IEM Rio Major, and finished 3-4th at ESL Challenger Rotterdam, where xertioN managed a team-high 1.32 rating.

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xertioN‘s impact truly began to show in Brazil when the Rio Major began, and he combined with frozen to lead MOUZ to a flawless 3-0 run in the Challengers Stage while averaging a 1.32 rating. The 18-year-old’s performance tapered off drastically in the Legends Stage of the Major as he managed only a 0.94 rating over 14 maps, but he still managed respectable performances against Liquid, ENCE, and Cloud9 in the quarter-finals before MOUZ were eliminated from the Major in 3-4th place by eventual champions Outsiders.

The Rio Major brought about an end to MOUZ‘s year as they were absent from the BLAST Fall and World Final, leaving xertioN with a respectable start to his career at the top level to reflect back on. Very few players emerge on the world stage and can hit the ground running, and though xertioN didn’t have quite as good a year individually as m0NESY, he can head into 2023 knowing he hasn’t failed the bold prediction expectations set by ZywOo, Twistzz, and broky.

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fame received callouts from Abay “⁠HObbit⁠” Khasenov and Denis “⁠electroNic⁠” Sharipov coming into 2022, but much like xertioN, he didn’t get a true shot at playing at the top level until mid-way through the year. HObbit said that he liked the way fame played and hoped to see him in the top 20, while electroNic stated that fame “communicates well and always does everything for his team. Furthermore, he has a great aim and understands his role on the map.”

fame‘s first months of 2022 were spent under the K23 banner, where he averaged a 1.09 rating while taking part in a number of online events. His call up to the big leagues came in June when he was enlisted by Outsiders alongside David “⁠n0rb3r7⁠” Danielyan, replacing Mareks “⁠YEKINDAR⁠” Gaļinskis and Timur “⁠buster⁠” Tulepov, and it didn’t take long for fame to start proving electroNic‘s words correct.

The team got off to a strong start with their new roster, qualifying for ESL Pro League Season 16 through the Conference stage, and soon followed that up with a runner-up finish at ESL Challenger Valencia where fame averaged a 1.13 rating. IEM Cologne marked a stumbling block as, although Outsiders advanced through the Play-In unbeaten, they exited the main tournament in last place. fame in particular struggled at the event, but bounced back in Pro League as his team finished in 5-8th place before securing a place at the IEM Rio Major through the RMR.

fame then led Outsiders to a trophy finish at ESL Challenger Rotterdam with a 1.27 rating, momentum which he carried into the IEM Rio Major as he posted a 1.15 rating in the Challengers Stage and 1.24 rating in the Legends and Champions Stages en route to winning the Major championship. His strong form didn’t last into the BLAST World Final, where the team were eliminated in last place to bring their year to an end.

Within his first six months in a top team, 19-year-old fame has already clinched the biggest trophy there is to win in Counter-Strike, surpassing all expectations that were placed on him ahead of the start of the year. Although he is unlikely to place among the top 20 this year, managing to win a Major in his debut year is no small feat, and ensures that he lives up to electroNic and HObbit‘s predictions from the previous year.

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00NATION struggled in many of their international appearances in 2022, unable to deliver on expectations set by blockbuster roster moves at the start of the year. One such move was the additional of try from 9z, an Argentine AWPer who was highlighted by both Sergey “⁠Ax1Le⁠” Rykhtorov and Kaike “⁠KSCERATO⁠” Cerato as a potential future top 20 player.

“When the guy starts playing top tier events I think he will have a real shot at making the Top 20 players of the year ranking in the future,” Ax1Le had said. “The main thing is for him to keep going. Go all the way.” KSCERATO, meanwhile, praised try‘s mentality and consistency, but stated that he would “need more experience to evolve.”

Experience alone is indeed what try can look back on after 2022, taking part in a number of online European tournaments in the first portion of the year. His performances fluctuated a great deal at first, often falling off exponentially when faced against greater opposition, such as in 00NATION‘s failed PGL Major Antwerp Americas RMR campaign, or in their 5-6th finish at ESL Challenger Valencia.

Roster changes ahead of the start of the latter tournament finally began to bear fruit for the Brazilian side at IEM Cologne, with try leading his team through the Play-In stage with a 1.22 rating before they were soon eliminated from the main event in 13-16th place. He continued to show better form in the second portion of the year, albeit against domestic competition, and earned a ticket to the IEM Rio Major following a successful Americas RMR campaign. 00NATION couldn’t manage the weight of playing on home turf, however, and they were eliminated from the Challengers Stage with an 0-3 record, leaving them with just two more domestic events to round out the year.

try had fewer opportunities to showcase his abilities against top teams than other names on this list during the year, but so far, he has yet to consistently impress. With more experience under his belt heading into 2023, the Argentine AWPer still has the chance to make good on Ax1Le and KSCERATO‘s predictions — but 00NATION as a whole will need to rise around him and make it to more international events to ensure those opportunities arise.

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Players with one prediction

A handful of the Top 20 players of 2021 named talents that were not repeated by any of their compatriots, going for lesser known and more bold picks. torzsi was named by Robin “⁠ropz⁠” Kool just days after the Hungarian AWPer was promoted to MOUZ‘s main lineup, and it was a prediction that paid off over the course of the year.

torzsi quickly became one of the pivotal forces for MOUZ on the server in the first half of the year, notably powering their IEM Katowice Play-In and Global Esports Tour Dubai 2022 efforts with strong individual showings.

His form didn’t last for the entirety of the year, however, and following the player break it tapered off steeply as teams got a better read on his game and moves on the server. His 1.14 rating (1.07 on LAN) from the start of the year until IEM Cologne gave way to a 1.04 rating (1.00 LAN) from August onward, although he still helped MOUZ muster a 3-4th place run at the IEM Rio Major by averaging a 1.18 rating in the Challengers Stage.

Denis “⁠deko⁠” Zhukov was another AWPer that received plaudits — from Dmitry “⁠sh1ro⁠” Sokolov — at the end of 2021, and he impressed throughout the year as he showcased stellar form with 1WIN in online competitions. He put up stable numbers at his only notable event appearance at the IEM Road to Rio Europe RMR, but infrequent appearances in Big Events still haven’t let him showcase his full potential.

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Is deko the truth?

Aleksandr “⁠KaiR0N-⁠” Anashkin had an almost identical experience as he impressed in online events, but didn’t quite deliver on Dzhami “⁠Jame⁠” Ali‘s hopes that he could make his name known, only attending the Rio Europe RMR where he was sent packing with a dismal 0.93 rating. His impact and overall rating throughout the year remained strong, however, leaving him in a similar position to deko as he looks toward 2023 to make more of a mark.

Keith “⁠NAF⁠” Markovic‘s prediction of Miłosz “⁠mhL⁠” Knasiak also seemingly came a year early, with the Polish AWPer posting dominant numbers under the MOUZ NXT banner before getting signed to Endpoint in October. His numbers remained strong in the final months of the year, but no big tournament appearances haven’t given mhL the opportunity to truly prove his abilities at a top level, and he too will be a name to keep an eye on for 2023.

The final two bold predictions for 2022 missed the mark by substantial margins. YEKINDAR‘s hope that his Latvian countryman, Roberts “⁠shield⁠” Tipsis, would be able to step up never materialized into top event appearances or even dominance in the lower tiers, with the 19-year-old averaging a 1.01 rating over the course of the year. Jonathan “⁠EliGE⁠” Jablonowski‘s prediction of Marshall “⁠Minus⁠” Sedowicz was even more misplaced as the North American AWPer quickly disappeared from competition entirely after Damian “⁠daps⁠” Steele‘s Orgless ESL Challenger League project dissolved in April, not recording a single official match since then.

All in all, the year’s most obvious bold prediction of m0NESY was the one to pay off in spades, but HObbit and electroNic‘s pick of fame was also well-placed as the young Russian became a Major winner following his move to Outsiders. xertioN and torzsi were also deserving of ZywOo, Twistzz, broky, and ropz‘s predictions as they found success with MOUZ, but no titles leave them as names to keep an eye on heading into 2023 alongside mhL, deko, and KaiR0N-.

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What Bold Prediction do you have for 2023? Let us know in the comments, or try your hand at predicting the Top 20 Players of 2022 on our new page!